IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration

Listed author(s):
  • Giorgio Canarella

    (University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Nevada, Las Vegas and University of Connecticut)

We investigate inflation persistence in six inflation targeting (IT) countries from the globaleconomy perspective. This view maintains that inflation persistence in IT countries has declined mainly because of the decline of inflation persistence in the global economy. We provide empirical evidence on two yet unanswered questions. First, we investigate whether each IT country in the sample share a common persistence with Germany and the US, two non-IT countries with a relatively good inflation record, which we use as proxies for the global economy. This tests the weak-form global hypothesis. Second, for the countries that share common inflation persistence with Germany and the US, we examine whether the same long memory component drives their inflationary processes to converge in the long-run to a common stochastic equilibrium with Germany and the US. This tests the strong-form global hypothesis. Our findings cast doubt on the relevance of IT in the industrial, but not developing, countries in the sample, suggesting that the global economy probably played an important role in the decline of inflation persistence in industrial, but not developing, countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2016-08.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2016-08.

as
in new window

Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2016-08
Note: Stephen Miller is the corresponding author
Contact details of provider: Postal:
University of Connecticut 365 Fairfield Way, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063

Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Augustine Arize & John Malindretos & Kiseok Nam, 2005. "Inflation and Structural Change in 50 Developing Countries," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 461-471, December.
  2. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
  3. Alogoskoufis, George S, 1992. "Monetary Accommodation, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 461-480, May.
  4. Joseph Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 339-357, June.
  5. Philipp Sibbertsen, 2004. "Long memory versus structural breaks: An overview," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 465-515, October.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  7. Marcel Aloy & Gilles De Truchis, 2012. "Estimation and Testing for Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers halshs-00793206, HAL.
  8. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  10. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Analysing Credibility in High-Inflation Countries: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 329-336, March.
  11. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Working Paper Series WP99-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  12. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
  13. Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2007. "Local Whittle Analysis of Stationary Fractional Cointegration and the ImpliedRealized Volatility Relation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 427-446, October.
  14. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence On Inflation-Targeting Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 593-630, April.
  15. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
  16. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  17. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
  18. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
  19. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
  20. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
  21. repec:hal:journl:peer-00815563 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  23. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
  24. George J. Bratsiotis & Jakob Madsen & Christopher Martin, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-12, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  25. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  26. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
  27. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  28. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
  29. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
  30. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & A. Gil-Alana, Luis, 2011. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 386-409.
  31. Hassler, U. & Marmol, F. & Velasco, C., 2006. "Residual log-periodogram inference for long-run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 165-207, January.
  32. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  33. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
  34. Hassler, Uwe, 2011. "Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 240-247, June.
  35. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M Miller, 2017. "Inflation Persistence Before and After Inflation Targeting: A Fractional Integration Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 78-103, January.
  36. Leonardo Rocha Souza, 2007. "Temporal Aggregation and Bandwidth selection in estimating long memory," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 701-722, 09.
  37. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
  38. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  39. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
  40. Rose, Andrew K. & Mihov, Ilian, 2008. "Is Old Money Better than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
  41. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," NBER Working Papers 4985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
  43. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  44. D Marinucci & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2269, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  45. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
  46. Federico M. Bandi & Benoit Perron, 2006. "Long Memory and the Relation Between Implied and Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 636-670.
  47. Lobato, Ignacio N & Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Long Memory in Stock-Market Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 410-427, October.
  48. Yigit, Taner M., 2010. "Inflation targeting: An indirect approach to assess the direct impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1357-1368, November.
  49. Erhard Reschenhofer & Benedikt M. Pötscher & Michael A. Hauser, 1999. "Measuring persistence in aggregate output: ARMA models, fractionally integrated ARMA models and nonparametric procedures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 243-269.
  50. Bollerslev, Tim & Jubinski, Dan, 1999. "Equity Trading Volume and Volatility: Latent Information Arrivals and Common Long-Run Dependencies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-21, January.
  51. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  52. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, P. M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 225-247, November.
  53. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  54. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Time-varying inflation persistence in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-535, March.
  55. D Marinucci & Peter M Robinson, 2001. "Semiparametric Fractional Cointegration Analysis," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 420, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  56. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 360-373.
  57. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, 08.
  58. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
  60. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  61. Corvoisier, Sandrine & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation: how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 0451, European Central Bank.
  62. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, 09.
  63. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  64. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2007. "Unit root log periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 104-124, May.
  65. Meller, Barbara & Nautz, Dieter, 2012. "Inflation persistence in the Euro area before and after the European Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1170-1176.
  66. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2016-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark McConnel)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.