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The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target

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  • Lars E.O. Svensson

Abstract

The paper gives a brief account of the Swedish experience of an inflation target in a floating exchange rate regime; identifies, documents and discusses the current problems in Swedish monetary policy and their origins; considers what can be done to remedy the problems; and draws some general conclusions. The two main current problems are the lack of credibility of the target and the significant risk that the target will be missed. The reasons for the lack of credibility include the fiscal situation, the institutional setup of monetary policy, the political division about monetary policy, and the insufficient transparency of and commitment to the current inflation- targeting policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," NBER Working Papers 4985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4985
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility," NBER Working Papers 4604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "Term, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment," NBER Working Papers 4544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
    3. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Álvaro Almeida, 2003. "40 Years of Monetary Targets and Financial Crises in 20 OECD Countries," FEP Working Papers 128, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482 Elsevier.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Christopher J. Waller, 1998. "Appointing the median voter of a policy board," Working Paper 9802, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Mats Persson & Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example," NBER Working Papers 5772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Johannes Groeneveld & Kees Koedijk & Clemens Kool, 1998. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 21-38, January.
    11. Barry Eichengreen, 2000. "The EMS Crisis in Retrospect," NBER Working Papers 8035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Garcia De Paso, Jose I., 2000. "Partisan Appointments to the Central Bank: Policy Uncertainty and the Democratic Deficit," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 471-489, July.
    13. Muscatelli, V Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, Special I.
    14. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 431-450.
    15. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    16. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    17. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2008. "Have the Sacrifice Ratios Changed under Inflation Targeting? An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 64867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dooyeon Cho & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2015. "An assessment of inflation targeting in a quantitative monetary business cycle framework: evidence from four early adopters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(32), pages 3395-3413, July.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2005. "Peg the export price index: A proposed monetary regime for small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 495-508, June.
    20. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching Monetary Mystique in the U.K," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-366, July.
    21. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration," Working papers 2016-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    22. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    23. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    24. Berg, Claes, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 100, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    25. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Leonardo Leiderman, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of Capital Flows to Latin America: Experience and Policy Issues," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6188, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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