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Term, Inflation and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment

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  • Svensson, L.E.O.

Abstract

The paper reviews the theoretical foundations of the use of forward interest rates to infer expected future rates of interest, inflation, currency depreciation and inflation differentials. Forward rates are related to these expected future variables via combinations of term, inflation and foreign exchange risk premia. A unified derivation, discussion and comparison of these premia is provided under both general and specific assumptions, as well as some comments on empirical estimation.

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Paper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 548.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 1993
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:548
Contact details of provider: Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.
Phone: +46-8-162000
Fax: +46-8-161443
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
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Keywords: interest rate ; inflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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  1. Breeden, Douglas T., 1986. "Consumption, production, inflation and interest rates : A synthesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-39, May.
  2. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 115-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, June.
  4. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation and Catching Up With the Jones," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  5. Fama, Eugene F & Farber, Andre, 1979. "Money, Bonds, and Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 639-49, September.
  6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
  7. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
  8. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  9. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
  10. Roll, Richard & Solnik, Bruno, 1979. "On some parity conditions encountered frequently in international economics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 267-283.
  11. Fischer, Stanley, 1975. "The Demand for Index Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(3), pages 509-34, June.
  12. Ben-Shahar, H & Cukierman, A, 1973. "The Term-Structure of Interest Rates and Expectations of Price Increase and Devaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 567-75, June.
  13. Paunio, Jouko J & Suvanto, Antti, 1977. "Changes in Price Expectations: Some Tests Using Data on Indexed and Non-Indexed Bonds," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(173), pages 37-45, February.
  14. Stulz, Rene M, 1984. "Currency Preferences, Purchasing Power Risks, and the Determination of Exchange Rates in an Optimizing Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 302-16, August.
  15. Benninga, Simon & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1983. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates under Uncertainty: The Fisher Theorem and the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 856-67, October.
  16. Bennett T. McCallum, 1989. "Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stulz, ReneM., 1981. "A model of international asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 383-406, December.
  18. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier.
  19. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. " International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-84, June.
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Cited by:

  1. Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1996. "New Techniques to Extract Market expectations from Financial Instruments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 142, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "The Magic of the Exchange Rate: Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap in Small and Large OPen Economies," Working Papers 072004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," BIS Working Papers 319, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 1103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 322, Bank of England.
  6. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2003. "The term structure of deviations from the interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 57-67, February.
  7. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
  8. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
  9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mahajan, Arvind & Wagner, Andrew J., 1999. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.

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