A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987.
"The dollar and real interest rates,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 103-139, January.
- John Y. Campbell & Richard H. Clarida, 1987. "The Dollar and Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Clarida, Richard, 1987. "The Dollar and Real Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 3221495, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February.
- repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:283-305 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989.
"Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
- Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1983.
"Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "Floating Exchange Rates, Expectations and New Information," NBER Working Papers 1064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
- Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
- Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984.
"International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence,"
NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Forward Exchange Rates and Expected Future Spot Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:933-48 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993.
"Term, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment,"
NBER Working Papers
4544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1993. "Term, Inflation and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment," Papers 548, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993.
"Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Menzie Chinn, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
- Wolff, Christian C P, 1987.
"Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 395-406, June.
- Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 189, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin S. Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1992.
"Some empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
92-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1993. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolff, Christian C. P., 1988.
"Exchange rates, innovations and forecasting,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 49-61, March.
- Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Exchange Rates, Innovations and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
- Cavaglia, Stefano M F G & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 321-343, July.
- Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
- Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
- Hogan, Ked & Melvin, Michael & Roberts, Dan J., 1991. "Trade balance news and exchange rates: Is there a policy signal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 90-99, March.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Heeho Kim, 2013. "Uncertainty and risk premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 62-79, January.
- Jan Marc Berk & Klaas Knot, 2001. "The term structure of UIP: evidence from survey data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 459-462.
- Van Newby, 2002. "The effects of news on exchange rates when the risk premium is considered," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 147-153.
- Oberlechner, Thomas & Hocking, Sam, 2004. "Information sources, news, and rumors in financial markets: Insights into the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 407-424, June.
- Qaisar Abbas & Javid Iqbal & Ayaz, 2012. "Relationship Between GDP, Inflation and Real Interest Rate with Exchange Rate Fluctuation of African Countries," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 132-141, July.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994.
"Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
- Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ross Levine, 1988. "The forward exchange rate bias: a new explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers 338, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994.
"A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233409, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
- Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016.
"Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey,"
Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
- Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar, 2012. "Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Borradores de Economia 735, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar, 2012. "Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia´s exchange rate survey," Borradores de Economia 9999, Banco de la Republica.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79,
Springer.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
- Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
- Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003.
"The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
- Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999. "The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate," MPRA Paper 9775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
- Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
- Barabás, Gyula, 1996. "Kamatparitás lebegő és csúszó leértékeléses árfolyamrendszerben [Interest parity in floating and in crawling-peg foreign exchange rate régimes]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 972-994.
- Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jorge Andrés Muñoz Mendoza & Carmen Lissette Veloso Ramos & Sandra María Sepúlveda Yelpo & Carlos Leandro Delgado Fuentealba & Edinson Edgardo Cornejo Saavedra, 2022. "Exchange Markets and Stock Markets Integration in Latin-America," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
- Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frederick Nieuwland & Willem Verschoor & Christian Wolff, 2000. "Exchange risk premia in the European monetary system," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 351-360.
- Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:20:y:1996:i:1:p:179-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.