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Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information

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  • Edwards, Sebastian

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates,future spot rates and new information. A stochastic model of exchangerate determination is used to formally show how unanticipated changes in the exchange rate determinants (or "news") affect the spot rate. The empirical analysis indicates that "new information" plays an important role in explaining the market forecasting error, or difference between the spot rate and the forward rate, determined in the previous period.
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  • Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:11:y:1983:i:3:p:321-336
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    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rita Biswas & Hany Shawky, 1996. "The impact of political shocks on cointegrated exchange rate series," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 15-19.
    2. Sebastián Edwards, 1983. "La Relación entre las Tasas de Interés y el Tipo de Cambio Bajo un Sistema de Cambio Flotante," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 20(59), pages 65-74.
    3. Gabriella Cagliesi & Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina & Massimo Tivegna, 2016. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: How Traders’ Behaviour Has Been Affected by the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 139-177, July.
    4. Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.
    5. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
    6. Gregory P. Hopper, 1997. "What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 17-29.
    7. Luis Felipe Lagos & Rodrigo Cerda, 2006. "Tipo de Cambio Nominal en un Régimen de Flotación: Chile 2000-2005," Documentos de Trabajo 313, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    8. Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
    9. repec:bis:bisbpc:96-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Van Newby, 2002. "The effects of news on exchange rates when the risk premium is considered," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 147-153.
    11. W A Razzak, 1998. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis in inflation-targeting regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, revised Aug 1999.
    12. Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111.
    13. Luintel, K. B. & Paudyal, K., 1998. "Common stochastic trends between forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-297, April.
    14. Thomas C. Chiang, 1986. "Empirical Analysis On The Predictors Of Future Spot Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(2), pages 153-162, June.
    15. Tanner, Glenn, 1997. "A note on economic news and intraday exchange rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 573-585, April.
    16. Kevin Ross, 1991. "Contemporaneous Reserve Accounting, M1 Announcements and Exchange Rate Movements," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 177-187, Apr-Jun.
    17. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe, 2004. "Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market of Papua New Guinea During the Recent Float," International Trade 0406007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Robert Amano & Paul Fenton & David Tessier & Simon van Norden, 1996. "The credibility of monetary policy: a survey of the literature with some simple applications to Caanda," Meeting papers 9610001, EconWPA.
    19. Patrick Artus, 1990. "Spéculateurs hétérogènes et chocs monétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(5), pages 895-922.

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