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Rational Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market

In: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics

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  • Peter R. Hartley

Abstract

Many models of exchange rate determination imply that movements in money supplies and demands should result in movements in exchange rates. Hence, if rational agents are attempting to forecast exchange rate movements, they should in the first instance forecast movements in the supplies of and demands for money balances. Furthermore, if these underlying variables follow some stable autoregressive processes agents should use those processes to make their forecasts. If we identify the forward rate with the market's expectation for the future spot rate, rationality of expectations will imply testable cross-equation restrictions in a joint model of the autoregressions and exchange rate forecasting equation. This strategy is implemented in the paper using data on the L UK/$US and DM/$US exchange rates from the recent floating rate period.
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Suggested Citation

  • Peter R. Hartley, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 153-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11379
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 162-162, May.
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Razin, Assaf, 1980. "Stochastic prices and tests of efficiency of foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 165-170.
    5. Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    8. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    9. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas C. Glaessner, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of a dynamic model of exchange rate determination: an application of general method of moments techniques," International Finance Discussion Papers 208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "Floating Excahnge Rates, Exectations and New Information," UCLA Economics Working Papers 227, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.

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