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A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate

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  • West, Kenneth D.

Abstract

This paper uses a novel teat to see whether the Herse (1985) and Woo (1985) models are consistent with the variability of the deutschemark - dollar exchange rate 1974-1984. The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes. Both models, however, explain the month to month variability as resulting in a critical way from unobservable shocks to money demand and purchasing power parity. It would therefore be of interest in future work to model one or both of these shocks as explicit functions of economic variables.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (1987)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (August)
Pages: 57-76

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:23:y:1987:i:1-2:p:57-76
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel, . "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," Working Paper 32044, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  2. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 0565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 1833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  5. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
  7. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  8. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1985. "The Impossibility of Rational Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  10. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-73, April.
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  13. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
  14. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
  15. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Are Tax Cuts Really Expansionary?," NBER Working Papers 1443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Paul R. Milgrom, 1978. "Rational Expectations," Discussion Papers 406, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  19. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  20. Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1980. "Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," NBER Working Papers 0476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Driskill, Robert A, 1981. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 357-71, April.
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  23. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  25. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-81, May.
  26. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "Ruling Out Nonstationary Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  28. Hodrick, Robert J., 1979. "On the monetary analysis of exchange rates : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 103-121, January.
  29. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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