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A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate

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  • West, Kenneth D.

Abstract

This paper uses a novel teat to see whether the Herse (1985) and Woo (1985) models are consistent with the variability of the deutschemark - dollar exchange rate 1974-1984. The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes. Both models, however, explain the month to month variability as resulting in a critical way from unobservable shocks to money demand and purchasing power parity. It would therefore be of interest in future work to model one or both of these shocks as explicit functions of economic variables.
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  • West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:23:y:1987:i:1-2:p:57-76
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    1. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
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    5. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-381, May.
    6. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1986. " Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 831-842, September.
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    12. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hodrick, Robert J., 1979. "On the monetary analysis of exchange rates : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 103-121, January.
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    25. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    26. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1988. "Exchange rate volatility and misalignment: evaluating some proposals for reform," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-231.
    2. Feenstra, Robert C. & Kendall, Jon D., 1997. "Pass-through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 237-261, August.
    3. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "An Aggregate Demand--Aggregate Supply Analysis of Japanese Monetary Policy,1973-1990," NBER Chapters,in: Japanese Monetary Policy, pages 160-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
    7. Djeutem, Edouard & Kasa, Kenneth, 2013. "Robustness and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-39.
    8. Baffes, John & Ajwad, Mohamed I., 1998. "Detecting price links in the world cotton market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1944, The World Bank.
    9. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lansing, Kevin J. & Ma, Jun, 2017. "Explaining exchange rate anomalies in a model with Taylor-rule fundamentals and consistent expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 62-87.
    11. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
    12. Bettendorf, Timo & Chen, Wenjuan, 2013. "Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar exchange rate? New evidence from sequential ADF tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 350-353.
    13. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2016. "Are there Bubbles in Exchange Rates? Some New Evidence from G10 and Emerging Markets Countries," Working Papers in Economics 16/05, University of Waikato.
    14. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.
    15. Bettendorf, Timo & Chen, Wenjuan, 2012. "Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar Exchange Rate? New evidence from Sequential ADF Tests," Discussion Papers 2012/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    16. Bartolini, Leonardo & Giorgianni, Lorenzo, 2001. "Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 518-530, August.
    17. Daan Steenkamp, 2017. "How bubbly is the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
    19. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.

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