IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Detecting price links in the world cotton market

  • Baffes, John
  • Ajwad, Mohamed I.

The authors examine the degree to which international cotton prices are linked and test whether such links have improved over the past decade. They conclude that the degree of linkage has improved over the past decade, in the short run largely as the result of short-run price transmission -- and to a lesser extent because of long-run comovement. Improvements in information technology have made it much easier for information about demand to be disseminated across markets, so changes in cotton prices attributable to a price shock in one place are soon transmitted to prices in other places. Moreover, many countries have liberalized their cotton subsectors, and in some countries the government's role has changed substantially. In East Africa, for example, cotton marketing and trade was handled entirely by government parastatals. Now Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe have liberalized their marketing and trade regimes, to varying degrees. In the former Soviet Union (FSU) cotton shipped from Central Asia to other parts of the FSU were considered part of domestic trade. Now cotton exports from Uzbekistan are the most important component of that country's foreign trade. With such changes, one should expect cotton prices to converge somewhat more in the long run. Price links between West Africa and Central Asia are much greater than between the United States and other markets -- in part because most West African and Central Asian cotton is exported, compared with only 40 percent of U.S. cotton (and 60 percent of Greek cotton). Prices in countries that export most of their cotton are more likely to converge than prices in countries where prices are subject to both domestic and international demand conditions. To improve price risk management, there should be future contracts other than those traded on the New York Cotton Exchange, which mostly serves domestic U.S. needs and is not used extensively by non-U.S. hedgers and speculators.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1998/07/01/000009265_3980901093537/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1944.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 31 Jul 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1944
Contact details of provider: Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Christopher B. Barrett, 1996. "Market Analysis Methods: Are Our Enriched Toolkits Well Suited to Enlivened Markets?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 825-829.
  2. S. Leavitt & M. Hawkins & M. Veeman, 1983. "Improvements to Market Efficiency through the Operation of the Alberta Pork Producers' Marketing Board," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 31(3), pages 371-388, November.
  3. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  4. T. Randall Fortenbery & Hector O. Zapata, 1997. "An evaluation of price linkages between futures and cash markets for cheddar cheese," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 279-301, 05.
  5. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-73, April.
  6. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
  7. Fafchamps, Marcel & Gavian, Sarah, 1996. "The Spatial Integration of Livestock Markets in Niger," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 366-405, October.
  8. Goletti, Francesco & Babu, Suresh, 1994. "Market liberalization and integration of maize markets in Malawi," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 11(2-3), pages 311-324, December.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  11. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
  14. Aris Protopapadakis & Hans R. Stoll, . "Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  15. Faruqee, Rashid & Coleman, Jonathan R & Scott, Tom, 1997. "Managing Price Risk in the Pakistan Wheat Market," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(2), pages 263-92, May.
  16. Bob Baulch, 1997. "Transfer Costs, Spatial Arbitrage, and Testing for Food Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 477-487.
  17. Southworth, V. Roy & Jones, William O. & Pearson, Scott R., 1979. "Food Crop Marketing in Atebubu, District, Ghana," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02.
  18. Kling, Catherine L. & Sexton, Richard & Carman, Hoy, 1991. "Market Integration, Efficiency of Arbitrage, and Imperfect Competition: Methodology and Application to U.S. Celery," Staff General Research Papers 1609, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  19. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  21. George J. Stigler & Robert A. Sherwin, 1983. "The Extent of the Market," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 31, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  22. Alderman, Harold, 1993. "Intercommodity Price Transmittal: Analysis of Food Markets in Ghana," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(1), pages 43-64, February.
  23. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  24. Lutz, Clemens & van Tilburg, Aad & van der Kamp, Bertjan, 1995. "The Process of Short- and Long-Term Price Integration in the Benin Maize Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 191-212.
  25. Pendell, Dustin L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2004. "Spatial Market Integration In Regional Cattle Markets," 2004 Annual Meeting, June 30-July 2, 2004, Honolulu, Hawaii 36265, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  26. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  27. Goletti, Francesco & Babu, Suresh, 1994. "Market liberalization and integration of maize markets in Malawi," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(2-3), December.
  28. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  29. Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.