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Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

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  • Walter Labys

    (Division of Resource Management, West Virginia University)

Abstract

Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended to mineral and energy commodities. Also at the beginning of the century, some of the earliest work took place on applying statistical methods to price series. The purpose of this paper is to review how this progress has contributed to analyzing commodity markets and prices and to solving price forecasting problems, concentrating on more recent advances in econometric modeling and time series analysis. Attention is also paid to spatial developments that have implications for regional price modeling.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rri:wpaper:2005wp01
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    Keywords

    commodity prices; price trends; price cycles; price volatility; futures markets; time series analysis; econometric models; mathematical models; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

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