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The Existence of Broiler Cycles: An Application of Spectral Analysis

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  • Gordon C. Rausser
  • Thomas F. Cargill

Abstract

The broiler industry has experienced rapid growth, instability, and structural change during the postwar period. A time-series analysis of important industry variables is presented. Auto-spectral methods are employed to investigate hypothesized 30-month cycles, while cross-spectral methods are utilized to determine if significant lead-lag relationships exist between the various time series. Moreover, these methods, as well as complex demodulation, are used in an attempt to determine the effects of vertical integration. The results cast doubt on the hypothesis that regular cycles of approximately 30 months characterize the broiler industry and suggest that time differences (lead-lag relationships) among various time series are not generally significant. The possible effects of vertical integration generally conform to intuitive notions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon C. Rausser & Thomas F. Cargill, 1970. "The Existence of Broiler Cycles: An Application of Spectral Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(1), pages 109-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:52:y:1970:i:1:p:109-121.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1238169
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Walter C. Labys & Dominique Badillo & Jean-Baptiste Lesourd, 1998. "Cycles à moyen terme des prix mondiaux des matières premières agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 16-21.
    2. Axel Grossmann & Emiliano Giudici & Marc Simpson, 2014. "Euro conversion and return dynamics of European financial markets: a frequency domain approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Griffith, Garry R., 1975. "A Cross-Spectral Approach To Measuring Pricing Efficiency In The New South Wales Pigmeat Market," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(04), pages 1-21, December.
    4. repec:rri:wpaper:200501 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Atle Oglend & Frank Asche, 2016. "Cyclical non-stationarity in commodity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1465-1479, December.
    6. Kapombe, Crispin M. & Colyer, Dale, 1999. "A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 295-307, December.
    7. Tomek, William G. & Robinson, Kenneth L., 1977. "PART V. Agricultural Price Analysis and Outlook," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337217, january.
    8. Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    9. Edgar E. Twine & James Rude & Jim Unterschultz, 2016. "Canadian Cattle Cycles and Market Shocks," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 119-146, March.
    10. Smyth, Donald Craig, 1985. "Economic impacts of the Farmer-Owned Reserve program on the U.S. corn-livestock sector," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013104, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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