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Canadian Cattle Cycles and Market Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Edgar E. Twine
  • James Rude
  • Jim Unterschultz

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="fr"> Dans le présent article, nous analysons les cycles du secteur canadien des bovins de boucherie par le biais des propriétés des séries chronologiques de quatre variables associées à ce secteur, à savoir le cheptel bovin total, le cheptel de vaches de boucherie, l'approvisionnement en bœuf et les prix du bœuf. Notre objectif consiste à fournir des estimations à jour de la durée des cycles et à déterminer si certains chocs ayant récemment secoué les marchés peuvent être associés ou non à des changements liés à la nature des cycles. La décomposition spectrale des variables montre que le cheptel bovin, le cheptel de vaches de boucherie, l'approvisionnement en bœuf et les prix du bœuf suivent des cycles de dix ans. L'approvisionnement en bœuf et les prix du bœuf suivent respectivement des cycles saisonnier et annuel. À l'aide de l'analyse d'intervention, nous avons modélisé l'appréciation du taux de change, la flambée des prix des aliments pour animaux et les épisodes d'encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine (ESB) comme étant des chocs. Les chocs liés au taux de change et aux prix des aliments pour animaux ont été modélisés comme ayant commencé en 2002 et en 2007 respectivement, et ayant continué jusqu’à la fin de la période d’échantillonnage, tandis que l’ESB a été modélisé comme un changement au cours de la période 2003–05. Selon nos résultats, les trois chocs ont eu des répercussions considérables sur le cheptel bovin total, tandis que le taux de change et l’ESB semblent avoir touché l'approvisionnement en bœuf. Une comparaison spectrale des périodogrammes de l'approvisionnement en bœuf avant et après les chocs révèle une diminution de 58 % de l'amplitude de crête du cycle de l'approvisionnement en bœuf.

Suggested Citation

  • Edgar E. Twine & James Rude & Jim Unterschultz, 2016. "Canadian Cattle Cycles and Market Shocks," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 119-146, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:64:y:2016:i:1:p:119-146
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/cjag.12066
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