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Cattle Cycles, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Age Distribution of Capital

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  • David Aadland

    (Utah State University)

Abstract

This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) keeping track of the age distribution of the capital stock, (2) allowing for heterogeneous expectations, and (3) recognizing that cow-calf operators make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins. The model is then calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that endogenously generates ten-year cycles in the total stock of cattle.

Suggested Citation

  • David Aadland, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Age Distribution of Capital," Others 0211002, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0211002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach," 144th Seminar, February 9-13, 2015, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 206210, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Charles Sims & David Aadland & David Finnoff & James Powell, 2013. "How Ecosystem Service Provision Can Increase Forest Mortality from Insect Outbreaks," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(1), pages 154-176.
    3. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    4. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 98-115, April.
    5. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach," 2015 International European Forum, February 17-21, 2014, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 206210, International European Forum on Innovation and System Dynamics in Food Networks.
    6. Peter Tozer & Thomas L. Marsh, 2012. "Domestic and trade impacts of foot-and-mouth disease on the Australian beef industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 385-404, July.
    7. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    8. Peter R. Tozer & Thomas. L. Marsh & Evgeniy V. Perevodchikov, 2015. "Economic Welfare Impacts of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(2), pages 163-184, June.
    9. Edgar E. Twine & James Rude & Jim Unterschultz, 2016. "Canadian Cattle Cycles and Market Shocks," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 119-146, March.
    10. Ranjan, Ram & Lubowski, Ruben N., 2004. "A Model Of Producer Incentives For Livestock Disease Management," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20146, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Ranjan, Ram & Lubowski, Ruben N., 2004. "A Model of Producer Incentives for Livestock Disease Management," Working Papers 15653, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center.
    12. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
    13. Stockton, Matthew C. & Van Tassell, Larry W., 2007. "The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37564, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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