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A Theoretical And Empirical Investigation Of The Supply Response In The U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

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  • Aadland, David
  • Bailey, DeeVon
  • Feng, Shelly

Abstract

This paper investigates the response of beef cattle producers to changes in the price of cattle. Previous research has suggested that there may be a negative short-run supply response to a permanent increase in the price of cattle. We build a dynamic, rational expectations model that predicts that the supply response is generally positive, even for permanent shocks in the short run, and nests the negative supply response as a special case for appropriately restricted demand shocks. Using annual US time series data (1930-1997) and a simultaneous-equations econometric approach, we find a positive short-run supply response in the cow market and mixed evidence in the heifer market.

Suggested Citation

  • Aadland, David & Bailey, DeeVon & Feng, Shelly, 2000. "A Theoretical And Empirical Investigation Of The Supply Response In The U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21887, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea00:21887
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry J. Paarsch, 1985. "Micro-economic Models of Beef Supply," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 636-651, August.
    2. Rosen, Sherwin & Murphy, Kevin M & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1994. "Cattle Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 468-492, June.
    3. Capps, Oral, Jr. & Farris, Donald E. & Byrne, Patrick J. & Namken, Jerry C. & Lambert, Charles D., 1994. "Determinants Of Wholesale Beef-Cut Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
    4. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(2), pages 131-144.
    5. Sherwin Rosen, 1987. "Dynamic Animal Economics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 547-557.
    6. James N. Trapp, 1986. "Investment and Disinvestment Principles with Nonconstant Prices and Varying Firm Size Applied to Beef-Breeding Herds," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(3), pages 691-703.
    7. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
    9. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    10. Marsh, John M., 1991. "Derived Demand Elasticities: Marketing Margin Methods Versus An Inverse Demand Model For Choice Beef," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(02), December.
    11. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ndayitwayeko, W-M. & Odhiambo, M.O. & Nyangweso, P.M. & Korir, M.K., 2012. "Determinants of Beef Meat Supply in Burundi: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach Applied to structural Nerlov Paradign," 2012 Eighth AFMA Congress, November 25-29, 2012, Nairobi, Kenya 159414, African Farm Management Association (AFMA).

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