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Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital

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  • Aadland, David

Abstract

This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) allowing cow-calf operators to make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins, (2) formally recognizing the age distribution of the capital stock, and (3) considering a mixed scheme of rational and naive expectations. The model is then calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that endogenously generates ten-year cycles in the total stock of cattle.

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  • Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19795
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19795
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Huan & Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Rationalizing Time Series Differences Between Cow-Calf And Feeder Returns," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49486, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    3. Tozer, Peter & Marsh, Thomas, 2012. "Domestic and trade impacts of foot-and-mouth disease on the Australian beef industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 1-20.
    4. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.
    5. Xu, Yecheng & Zhang, Yaoqi & Chen, Jiquan & John, Ranjeet, 2019. "Livestock dynamics under changing economy and climate in Mongolia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    7. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 98-115, April.
    8. Astrid Fliessbach & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Cycles in cattle and hog prices in South America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1167-1183, October.
    9. Andrew P. Barnes, 2023. "The role of family life‐cycle events on persistent and transient inefficiencies in less favoured areas," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 295-315, February.
    10. Poddaturi, Dinesh R. & Hart, Chad E. & Schulz, Lee L. & Pouliot, Sébastien, 2020. "A Dynamic Model of U.S. Beef Cattle," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800001057, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Ashutosh Vashishtha, 2020. "Cobweb price dynamics under the presence of agricultural futures market: theoretical analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 131-162, June.
    12. Cosnard, Lionel, 2018. "Modeling the emergence of hysteresis in agri-food sectors," Conference papers 332955, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
    14. Naevdal, Eric & Olaussen, Jon Olaf & Skonhoft, Anders, 2012. "A bioeconomic model of trophy hunting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 194-205.
    15. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach," 2015 International European Forum (144th EAAE Seminar), February 9-13, 2015, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 206210, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    16. Stockton, Matthew C. & Van Tassell, Larry W., 2007. "The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37564, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    17. Li, Yunhan & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2021. "The Vanishing U.S. Cattle Cycle: A Stochastic Cycle Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(3), September.

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    Livestock Production/Industries;

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