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Cattle Cycles, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Age Distribution of Capital

  • David Aadland

This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) keeping track of the age distribution of the capital stock, (2) allowing for heterogeneous expectations, and (3) recognizing that cow-calf operators make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins. The model is then calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that endogenously generates ten-year cycles in the total stock of cattle.

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File URL: ftp://repec.bus.usu.edu/RePEc/usu/pdf/ERI2002-02.pdf
File Function: First version, 2002
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Utah State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2002-02.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usu:wpaper:2002-02
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://apec.usu.edu/
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  1. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  3. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
  6. Sherwin Rosen & Kevin M. Murphy & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1993. "Cattle Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Capps, Oral, Jr. & Farris, Donald E. & Byrne, Patrick J. & Namken, Jerry C. & Lambert, Charles D., 1994. "Determinants Of Wholesale Beef-Cut Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
  8. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Hahn, William F. & Nelson, Kenneth E. & Duewer, Lawrence A. & Gustafson, Ronald A., 1999. "U.S. Beef Industry: Cattle Cycles, Price Spreads, and Packer Concentration," Technical Bulletins 33583, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  11. Hanson, Kenneth & Robinson, Sherman & Schluter, Gerald E., 1993. "Sectoral Effects Of A World Oil Price Shock: Economywide Linkages To The Agricultural Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(01), July.
  12. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-25, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  13. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. David Aadland & DeeVon Bailey, 2001. "Short-Run Supply Responses in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 826-839.
  15. Larry J. Martin & Richard Haack, 1977. "Beef Supply Response In North America," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 25(3), pages 29-47, November.
  16. Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-26, October.
  17. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  18. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  19. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  20. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, June.
  21. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  22. Stephen F. Hamilton & Terry L. Kastens, 2000. "Does Market Timing Contribute to the Cattle Cycle?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 82-96.
  23. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
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