The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation
The simulation of commodity prices has been undertaken using a myriad of techniques, with some omitting the cyclical component and others ignoring the presence of inter-temporal relationships expressed as autoregressive errors. This study examines the periodicity of cattle prices and the modeling of the cattle cycle for simulation purposes. The AIC criterion is used to determine lengths of various cycles to be included in a harmonic model, with a chained modeling approach providing the best representation of the cattle cycle.
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Journal of Political Economy,
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- Stephen F. Hamilton & Terry L. Kastens, 2000. "Does Market Timing Contribute to the Cattle Cycle?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 82-96.
- Bentley, Ernest & Waters, James R. & Shumway, C. Richard, 1976. "Determining Optimal Replacement Age Of Beef Cows In The Presence Of Stochastic Elements," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(02), December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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