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The Beef Cow Replacement Decision

  • Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr.
  • Short, Sara D.

This analysis examines effects of several common assumptions on net present values (NPVs) of beef cows. While effects on NPVs vary over a price cycle or successive price cycles, several generalities manifest themselves. A cow is not likely to recover the lost revenue from not having just one calf. Incorporating genetic improvement into the herd increases the probability of an older cow being culled. Variable net replacement/culling rates make sense in the context of cattle inventory and price cycles because of the effects cyclical series of prices have on NPV.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14695
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Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia in its journal Journal of Agribusiness.

Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:14695
Contact details of provider: Postal: 301 Conner Hall, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-7509
Web page: http://www.agecon.uga.edu/~jab/
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  1. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," NBER Working Papers 5260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Rosen, S. & Murphy, K.M. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1993. "Cattle Cycles," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 93-2, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  3. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-25, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Melton, Bryan E., 1980. "Economics Of Beef Cow Culling And Replacement Decisions Under Genetic Progress," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(02), December.
  5. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
  6. Bentley, Ernest & Shumway, C. Richard, 1981. "Adaptive Planning Over The Cattle Price Cycle," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(01), July.
  7. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  8. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
  9. Blake, Martin J. & Gray, James R., 1981. "A Method For Determining Ranch Profit Probabilities When Livestock Yields Are Normally Distributed," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(01), July.
  10. Moschini, GianCarlo & Holt, Matthew, 1992. "Alternative Measures of Risk in Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis of Sow Farrowing Decisions in the United States," Staff General Research Papers 11252, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Bentley, Ernest & Waters, James R. & Shumway, C. Richard, 1976. "Determining Optimal Replacement Age Of Beef Cows In The Presence Of Stochastic Elements," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(02), December.
  12. Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-26, October.
  13. John M. Marsh, 1999. "The Effects of Breeding Stock Productivity on the U.S. Beef Cattle Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 335-346.
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