Alternative Measures of Risk in Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis of Sow Farrowing Decisions in the United States
The role of price risk in sow farrowings is investigated by using bivariate ARCH-M and GARCH-M models and a nonparametric kernel estimator. To account for the relevant time horizon of irreversible supply decisions, predictions for mean price and conditional price variance are iterated forward. The empirical results vary markedly in terms of their implications for risk response in hog supply decisions, with the ARCH-M and GARCH-M models suggesting a small and negative risk effect. Estimates of the marginal risk premium also indicate moderate and variable departures from marginal cost pricing in sow farrowing supply decisions.
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|Date of creation:||01 Jan 1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1992, vol. 17|
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- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990.
"Alternative models for conditional stock volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1990. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990.
"Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor Ng & Michael Rothschild, 1988. "Asset Pricing with a Factor Arch Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills," NBER Technical Working Papers 0065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aman Ullah, 1988. "Non-parametric Estimation of Econometric Functionals," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 625-58, August.
- Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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