Supply response and price volatility in the Greek broiler market
The authors examine the supply response of the Greek broiler market. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility; price and supply equations are estimated jointly. In addition to the standard GARCH model, several different symmetric, asymmetric, and nonlinear GARCH models are estimated. These models use different conditional variance specifications (linear or nonlinear) to grasp some additional empirical regularity of data like asymmetry. Asymmetric price volatility means that different volatility is recorded in the case of a fall in prices than an increase in prices by the same amount. The possible existence of asymmetry in the producer's price volatility gives useful information about market structure and possible market power. The empirical results indicate that among the estimated GARCH models the nonlinear asymmetric GARCH model (NAGARCH) seems to better describe producers' price volatility of the Greek broiler industry. Furthermore, the empirical findings show that price volatility is an important risk factor and broiler feed price is the most significant cost factor of the supply response function. Finally, the model provides forecasts for quantity supplied, producers' price, and price volatility. [EconLit. Classifications: Q110, C510, D200]. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sentana,E., 1995.
"Quadratic Arch Models,"
9517, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2000.
"Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Level Shift at Unknown Time,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0342, Econometric Society.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 313-348, April.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Testing for a unit root in a time series with a level shift at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,72, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Holt, Matthew T. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1992.
"Alternative Measures Of Risk In Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis Of Sow Farrowing Decisions In The United States,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
- Moschini, GianCarlo & Holt, Matthew, 1992. "Alternative Measures of Risk in Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis of Sow Farrowing Decisions in the United States," Staff General Research Papers 11252, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alogoskoufis, George & Baltas, Nicholas C., 1991.
"Price and quantity adjustment in a dual character market The case of the Greek poultry sector,"
Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists,
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(1), October.
- Alogoskoufis, George & Baltas, Nicholas, 1991. "Price and quantity adjustment in a dual character market: The case of the Greek poultry sector," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 79-89, October.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
- Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
- Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991.
"Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Yang, Jian & Leatham, David J. & Haigh, Michael S., 1999.
"Agricultural Liberalization Policy and Commodity Price Volatility: A GARCH Application,"
Proceedings: 1999 Regional Committee NC-221, 1999, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada
132337, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
- Jian Yang & Michael Haigh & David Leatham, 2001. "Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(9), pages 593-598.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "Model Specification Tests and Artificial Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 102-46, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- U.N. Bhati, 1987. "Supply And Demand Responses For Poultry Meat In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(3), pages 256-265, December.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
- Bhati, U.N., 1987. "Supply And Demand Responses For Poultry Meat In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(03), December.
- Anthony Rezitis, 2003. "Mean and volatility spillover effects in Greek producer-consumer meat prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 381-384.
- Goodwin, Thomas H & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1982. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 658-67, November.
- Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988.
"Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market,"
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications
88-wp33, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
- Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 88-wp33, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Holt, Matthew, 1989. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers 274, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:26:y:2010:i:1:p:25-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.