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Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application

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  • Jian Yang
  • Michael Haigh
  • David Leatham

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the recent radical agricultural liberalization policy, i.e. the 1996 FAIR Act, on agricultural commodity price volatility using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. Results of the study indicate that the agricultural liberalization policy has caused an increase in the price volatility for three major grain commodities (corn, soybeans and wheat) and little change for oats, but a decrease for cotton. These findings stand in sharp contrast to Crain and Lee's observations in 1996 based on wheat markets that market-oriented measures in government farm policies tend to reduce agricultural price volatility.

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  • Jian Yang & Michael Haigh & David Leatham, 2001. "Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(9), pages 593-598.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:9:p:593-598
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850010018734
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    1. Sibanjan Mishra, 2019. "Testing Martingale Hypothesis Using Variance Ratio Tests: Evidence from High-frequency Data of NCDEX Soya Bean Futures," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(6), pages 1407-1422, December.
    2. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in dairy markets," Papers 2104.12707, arXiv.org.
    3. Maitre d'Hotel, Elodie & le Cotty, Tristan & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012. "Is A Public Regulation Of Food Price Volatility Feasible In Africa? An Arch Approach In Kenya," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122551, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Čermák, M. & Malec, K. & Maitah, M., 2017. "Price Volatility Modelling – Wheat: GARCH Model Application," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 9(4).
    5. Jian Yang & Titus Awokuse, 2003. "Asset storability and hedging effectiveness in commodity futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 487-491.
    6. Mittal, S & Hariharan, VK & Subash, SP, 2018. "Price volatility trends and price transmission for major staples in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 31(1).
    7. Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Tristan Le Cotty & Thom Jayne, 2013. "Trade Policy Inconsistency and Maize Price Volatility: An ARCH Approach in Kenya," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 607-620.
    8. Daria Loginova & Marco Portmann & Martin Huber, 2021. "Assessing the Effects of Seasonal Tariff‐rate Quotas on Vegetable Prices in Switzerland," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 607-627, June.
    9. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in international dairy commodity markets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 704-728, July.
    10. Georg V. Lehecka, 2014. "Have food and financial markets integrated?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2087-2095, June.
    11. Chan, Kam C. & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai K., 2004. "Daily volatility behavior in Chinese futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 491-505, December.
    12. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2010/129, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Antonios Antypas & Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2011. "Volatility Trends and Optimal Portfolios: the Case of Agricultural Commodities," DEOS Working Papers 1113, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    14. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the total market value of a shares traded in the Shenzhen stock exchange via the neural network," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1266-1279.
    15. Alan Woodland & Kishti Sen, 2010. "The volatility of Australian traded goods' prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(30), pages 3849-3869.
    16. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Coking coal futures price index forecasting with the neural network," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 349-359, June.
    17. Robert Finger & Nadja El Benni, 2012. "A Note on Price Risks in Swiss Crop Production – Empirical Results and Comparisons with other Countries," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 5(1), pages 131-151.
    18. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, March.
    19. Naveen Musunuru, 2016. "Examining Volatility Persistence and News Asymmetry in Soybeans Futures Returns," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 487-500, December.
    20. Wang, Lu & Wu, Rui & Ma, WeiChun & Xu, Weiju, 2023. "Examining the volatility of soybean market in the MIDAS framework: The importance of bagging-based weather information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    21. Millon, Lara & Barré, Kévin & Julliard, Romain & Compère, Pierre & Kerbiriou, Christian, 2021. "Calculation of biodiversity level between different land-uses to improve conservation outcomes of biodiversity offsetting," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    22. Apperson, George P., 2017. "Agricultural Commodity Futures Price Volatility: A Market Regulatory Policy Study," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258210, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    23. Cong, Ren & Lo, Alex Y., 2017. "Emission trading and carbon market performance in Shenzhen, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 414-425.
    24. Kilima, Fredy & Chung, Chanjin & Kenkel, Philip L. & Mbiha, Emanuel, 2004. "The Impact Of Market Reforms On Spatial Volatility Of Maize Price In Tanzania," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20332, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    25. Anthony N. Rezitis & Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos, 2010. "Supply response and price volatility in the Greek broiler market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 25-48.

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