IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v35y2010i2p163-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms: The case of Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Rezitis, Anthony N.
  • Stavropoulos, Konstantinos S.

Abstract

This study examines the supply response of the Greek beef market and the possible effect of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the Greek beef sector during the period 1993-2005. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process is used to estimate expected price, and price volatility, while several different symmetric, asymmetric and non-linear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results show that price volatility and feed price are important risk factors in the supply response function, while the negative asymmetric price volatility that was detected implies that producers have a weak market position. Furthermore, the empirical findings confirm that the annual premium paid by the EU to beef producers had a positive impact on the production level and also, the change of the EU price support regime, after 2006, is having negative effects on beef production level in Greece.

Suggested Citation

  • Rezitis, Anthony N. & Stavropoulos, Konstantinos S., 2010. "Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms: The case of Greece," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 163-174, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:163-174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-9192(09)00128-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. David Aadland & DeeVon Bailey, 2001. "Short-Run Supply Responses in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 826-839.
    4. Russell Tronstad & Thomas J. McNeill, 1989. "Asymmetric Price Risk: An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Sow Farrowings, 1973–86," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 630-637.
    5. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 29-52, March.
    6. Lianos, Theodore P & Katranidis, Stelios, 1993. "Modelling the Beef Market of the Greek Economy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(1), pages 49-63.
    7. Werner Kleinhanß & Carmen Murillo & Carlos San Juan & Stefan Sperlich, 2007. "Efficiency, subsidies, and environmental adaptation of animal farming under CAP," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 49-65, January.
    8. Michael Burton & Trevor Young & Roy Cromb, 1999. "Meat consumers’ long-term response to perceived risks associated with BSE in Great Britain," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 50, pages 7-19.
    9. Holt, Matthew T. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1992. "Alternative Measures Of Risk In Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis Of Sow Farrowing Decisions In The United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, July.
    10. John M. Marsh, 1994. "Estimating Intertemporal Supply Response in the Fed Beef Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(3), pages 444-453.
    11. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-596, May.
    12. Shlomo Reutlinger, 1966. "Short-Run Beef Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(4_Part_I), pages 909-919.
    13. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    14. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
    15. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    17. Matthew T. Holt, 1993. "Risk Response in the Beef Marketing Channel: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH-M Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 559-571.
    18. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    19. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1989. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 892-902.
    20. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
    21. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, Decembrie.
    22. Frances Antonovitz & Richard Green, 1990. "Alternative Estimates of Fed Beef Supply Response to Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 475-487.
    23. Comte, F. & Lieberman, O., 2003. "Asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 61-84, January.
    24. Baak, Saang Joon, 1999. "Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1517-1543, September.
    25. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
    26. Nahuis, Richard, 2004. "One size fits all?: Accession to the internal market; an industry-level assessment of EU enlargement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 571-586, July.
    27. Engle, Robert F, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87: Discussion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 103-106.
    28. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
    29. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
    30. Sherwin Rosen, 1987. "Dynamic Animal Economics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 547-557.
    31. Camilo Sarmiento & P. Geoffrey Allen, 2000. "Dynamics of Beef Supply in the Presence of Cointegration: A New Test of the Backward-Bending Hypothesis," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 421-437.
    32. Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers Archive 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    33. Antonova, Maria & Zeller, Manfred, 2007. "A Time-Series Analysis Of The Beef Supply Response In Russia: Implications For Agricultural Sector Development Policies," 104th Seminar, September 5-8, 2007, Budapest, Hungary 7791, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    34. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    35. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Piotr Bórawski & Marta Guth & Andrzej Parzonko & Tomasz Rokicki & Bogdan Klepacki & Marcin Wysokiński & Agnieszka Maciąg & James William Dunn, 2021. "Price changes of dairy products in the European Union," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(9), pages 373-381.
    2. Gecaj, Merita & Shahu, Edmira Ozuni & Imami, Drini & Skreli, Engjell & Jambor, Attila, 2018. "Analysing the impact of subsidies in the Albanian agriculture sector – A comparative approach," 162nd Seminar, April 26-27, 2018, Budapest, Hungary 271964, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Bahareh Mosadegh Sedghy & Rémy Lambert & Lota Dabio Tamini, 2016. "Supply response of corn farmers in Quebec: Analyzing the impact of prices volatility?," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2016-1, CREATE.
    4. Mosadegh Sedghy, Bahareh & Tamini, Lota D. & Lambert, Remy, 2021. "Implications of the state assistance program in the province of Quebec: the case of lamb production," MPRA Paper 112162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Smeets Kristková, Z. & García Alvaréz Coque, J. M., 2015. "Competitiveness of the EU Beef Sector – a Case Study," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Rezitis Anthony N & Stavropoulos Konstantinos S, 2011. "Price Transmission and Volatility in the Greek Broiler Sector: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony N. Rezitis & Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos, 2010. "Supply response and price volatility in the Greek broiler market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 25-48.
    2. Mbaga, Msafiri Daudi & Coyle, Barry T., 2003. "Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Giraitis, Liudas & Leipus, Remigijus & Robinson, Peter M. & Surgailis, Donatas, 2004. "LARCH, leverage, and long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 294, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Liudas Giraitis & Remigijus Leipus & Peter M Robinson & Donatas Surgailis, 2003. "LARCH, Leverage and Long Memory," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 460, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    7. Liudas Giraitis, 2004. "LARCH, Leverage, and Long Memory," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 177-210.
    8. Kristensen Dennis & Rahbek Anders, 2009. "Asymptotics of the QMLE for Non-Linear ARCH Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
    9. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    10. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    11. James Hansen & James McDonald & Panayiotis Theodossiou & Brad Larsen, 2010. "Partially Adaptive Econometric Methods For Regression and Classification," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 153-169, August.
    12. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    13. Michael S. Haigh & Henry L. Bryant, 2000. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    14. Carol Alexander & Emese Lazar, 2009. "Modelling Regime‐Specific Stock Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 761-797, December.
    15. Bali, Turan G. & Mo, Hengyong & Tang, Yi, 2008. "The role of autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis in the estimation of conditional VaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-282, February.
    16. Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2001. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    19. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Babsiri, Mohamed El & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2001. "Contemporaneous asymmetry in GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 257-294, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:163-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.