IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v25y2000i1p41-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets

Author

Listed:
  • Michael S. Haigh
  • Henry L. Bryant

Abstract

This paper looks at the potential role of time‐varying volatility of Mississippi river barge and ocean freight prices on commodity prices in Illinois, at the US Gulf and in Rotterdam using a Vector Error Correction GARCH‐in‐Mean model. The model is used to infer the extent to which transportation price risk affects price dynamics in international grain markets. Results from a simulation exercise indicate that both barge and ocean price volatility influence grain prices, but barge price volatility tends to have a greater impact on grain prices and marketing margins than that arising from ocean price volatility. Consistent with most studies that evaluate the role of risk in marketing channels, results here suggest that a reduction in barge rate risk would reduce marketing margins between Illinois and the US Gulf, and between the US Gulf and Rotterdam. The existence of an ocean freight futures contract coupled with the lack of a futures contract for barge rates may be partially responsible for the finding that barge rates have a significant influence on grain prices and contribute most to wide marketing margins found throughout the international grain‐marketing system.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Haigh & Henry L. Bryant, 2000. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:25:y:2000:i:1:p:41-58
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00234.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00234.x
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    3. Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1989. "Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 892-902.
    4. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    5. B. Wade Brorsen & Jean-Paul Chavas & Warren R. Grant, 1987. "A Market Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Risk on the U.S. Rice Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 733-739.
    6. Holt, Matthew T. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1992. "Alternative Measures Of Risk In Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis Of Sow Farrowing Decisions In The United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, July.
    7. James K. Binkley, 1983. "Marketing Costs and Instability in the International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(1), pages 57-64.
    8. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
    9. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    10. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
    12. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
    13. Bertrand M. Roehner, 1996. "The Role of Transportation Costs in the Economics of Commodity Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 339-353.
    14. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    15. John Schroeter & Azzeddine Azzam, 1991. "Marketing Margins, Market Power, and Price Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(4), pages 990-999.
    16. Haigh, Michael S. & Holt, Matthew T., 1999. "Volatility Spillovers Between Foreign Exchange, Commodity And Freight Futures Prices: Implications For Hedging Strategies," Faculty Paper Series 23997, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    19. Thomas S. Jayne & Robert J. Myers, 1994. "The Effect of Risk on Price Levels and Margins in International Wheat Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 63-73.
    20. Miljkovic, Dragan & Price, Gregory K. & Hauser, Robert J. & Algozin, Kenneth A., 2000. "The barge and rail freight market for export-bound grain movement from midwest to Mexican Gulf: an econometric analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-137, June.
    21. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
    22. Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2000. "Railroad wheat transportation markets in the central plains: modeling with error correction and directed graphs," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 21-39, March.
    23. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    24. B. Wade Brorsen & Jean-Paul Chavas & Warren R. Grant & L. D. Schnake, 1985. "Marketing Margins and Price Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Wheat Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 521-528.
    25. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1990. "Testing the law of one price when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, March.
    26. Matthew T. Holt, 1993. "Risk Response in the Beef Marketing Channel: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH-M Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 559-571.
    27. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
    28. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angelopoulos, Jason & Sahoo, Satya & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2020. "Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: New evidence from a dynamic factor model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2001. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    2. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2000. "Price And Price Risk Dynamics In Barge And Ocean Freight Markets And The Effects On Commodity Trading," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18934, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    5. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    6. Henry L. Bryant & Michael S. Haigh, 2005. "Derivative pricing model and time‐series approaches to hedging: A comparison," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 613-641, July.
    7. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    8. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    10. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.
    11. Menelaos Karanasos, "undated". "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    12. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
    13. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
    14. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1991. "Endogenous Risk in a Rational-Expectation Model of the U.S. Broiler Market: A Multivariate Arch-M Approach," Staff Papers 200538, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    15. Bryant, Henry L. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Comparing The Performances Of The Partial Equilibrium And Time-Series Approaches To Hedging," Working Papers 28580, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    16. Moschini, GianCarlo & Myers, Robert J., 2002. "Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 589-603, December.
    17. Anil K. Bera & Philip Garcia & Jae-Sun Roh, 1997. "Estimation of Time-Varying Hedge Ratios for Corn and Soybeans: BGARCH and Random Coefficient Approaches," Finance 9712007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2006. "Reevaluating hedging performance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 677-702, July.
    19. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    20. Atreya Chakraborty & John Barkoulas, 1999. "Dynamic futures hedging in currency markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 299-314.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:25:y:2000:i:1:p:41-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.