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A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry


  • Foster, Kenneth A
  • Burt, Oscar R


Reproduction constraints lead to some a priori information that may prove valuable in econometrically modeling inventory dynamics within the U.S. cattle herd. The distributed-lag models estimated for animal inventories suggest an implicit incorporation of the age distribution of the herd that is crucial to understanding the retention/culling (investment) decisions. The estimated equations are validated using postsample observations that were withheld prior to estimation. The final-form dynamic equations have complex roots and protracted price and investment effects. The parameter estimates are used to calculate intermediate and long-run elasticities at the means of relevant variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-426, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:4:p:419-26

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-360, July.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, June.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    6. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Horan & Christopher Wolf & Eli Fenichel & Kenneth Mathews, 2008. "Joint Management of Wildlife and Livestock Disease," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 47-70, September.
    2. Neibergs, J. Shannon & Thalheimer, Richard, 1997. "Price Expectations And Supply Response In The Thoroughbred Yearling Market," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(02), December.
    3. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    4. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    5. Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Zhao, Huan, 2011. "Four Market Studies for the Beef and Electric Power Industries," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Foster, Kenneth A. & Mwanaumo, Anthony, 1995. "Estimation of dynamic maize supply response in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 99-107, April.
    8. Marsh, John M., 2001. "U.S. Feeder Cattle Prices: Effects Of Finance And Risk, Cow-Calf And Feedlot Technologies, And Mexican Feeder Imports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(02), December.
    9. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
    10. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Short, Sara D., 2001. "The Beef Cow Replacement Decision," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2).
    11. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Park, Myung D., 2009. "Looking for Cattle and Hog Cycles through a Bayesian Window," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49278, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Rosen, Sherwin & Murphy, Kevin M & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1994. "Cattle Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 468-492, June.
    13. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
    14. Benjamin, Catherine & Piot-Lepetit, Isabelle, 2002. "Measuring the Effects of Alternative Support Policy Instruments on Beef Supply," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24781, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Chitose, Atsushi & Weaver, Robert D., 2007. "Dynamics of Slaughter Weight Response to Market Price Changes for Japanese Beef Cattle," Japanese Journal of Rural Economics, Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 9.
    16. Benjamin, Catherine & Piot-Lepetit, Isabelle, 2001. "Modelling Dynamic Beef Supply Response Using A Microeconomic Approach: An Application To The French Cattle Sector," International Trade in Livestock Products Symposium, January 18-19, 2001, Auckland, New Zealand 14541, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

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