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The economics of cattle supply

  • David Aadland

This paper builds a dynamic rational expectations model describing the supply of cattle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by allowing cow-calf operators to make period-by-period investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins, separates the markets for fed and unfed beef, and considers a rich set of exogenous shocks. The model is calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that replicates several empirical regularities associated with the cattle cycle.

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File URL: ftp://repec.bus.usu.edu/RePEc/usu/pdf/ERI2000-11.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2000
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Paper provided by Utah State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2000-11.

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Length: 67 pages
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Handle: RePEc:usu:wpaper:2000-11
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://apec.usu.edu/
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  1. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  3. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Harry J. Paarsch, 1985. "Micro-economic Models of Beef Supply," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 636-51, August.
  5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  6. Sherwin Rosen & Kevin M. Murphy & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1993. "Cattle Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Capps, Oral, Jr. & Farris, Donald E. & Byrne, Patrick J. & Namken, Jerry C. & Lambert, Charles D., 1994. "Determinants Of Wholesale Beef-Cut Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
  9. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  11. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Hahn, William F. & Nelson, Kenneth E. & Duewer, Lawrence A. & Gustafson, Ronald A., 1999. "U.S. Beef Industry: Cattle Cycles, Price Spreads, and Packer Concentration," Technical Bulletins 33583, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  12. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-25, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  13. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Staff Report 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  15. Eckstein, Zvi, 1984. "A Rational Expectations Model of Agricultural Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-19, February.
  16. John M. Marsh, 1999. "The Effects of Breeding Stock Productivity on the U.S. Beef Cattle Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 335-346.
  17. Marsh, John M., 1991. "Derived Demand Elasticities: Marketing Margin Methods Versus An Inverse Demand Model For Choice Beef," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(02), December.
  18. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
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