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On the centenary of the German hog cycle: new findings

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  • Phillip S. Parker
  • J. S. Shonkwiler

Abstract

Perhaps the earliest systematic study that investigated the cyclical nature of hog prices was that conducted by Gerlich in 1911 using German data from the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. Using data from the late twentieth and early twenty-first century, we model the behaviour of the German hog-feed price ratio. A dynamic unobservable time series model which incorporates both a stochastic trend and a stochastic cycle is developed and applied to these data. We find a significant four-year cycle and provide evidence that it is becoming more volatile. , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip S. Parker & J. S. Shonkwiler, 2014. "On the centenary of the German hog cycle: new findings," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(1), pages 47-61, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:47-61
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbt017
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jian & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2020. "The Impacts of African Swine Fever on Vertical and Spatial Hog Pricing and Market Integration in China," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Yu, Xiaohua & Abler, David, 2014. "Where have all the pigs gone? Inconsistencies in pork statistics in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 469-484.
    3. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Jingjing Wang & Xiaoyang Wang & Xiaohua Yu, 2023. "Shocks, cycles and adjustments: The case of China's Hog Market under external shocks," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 703-726, July.
    5. Li, Yunhan & Shonkwiler, Scott, 2016. "A Dynamic Model of U. S. Beef Cow Inventories," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235385, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach," 2015 International European Forum (144th EAAE Seminar), February 9-13, 2015, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 206210, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    7. Vollmer, Teresa & Holst, Carsten, 2016. "Dienen Terminmarktnotierungen Für Schlachtschweine Zur Prognose Zukünftiger Preisentwicklungen?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244806, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    8. Duden, C. & Offermann, F., 2019. "Farmers' risk exposition and its drivers," 171st Seminar, September 5-6, 2019, Zürich, Switzerland 333722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Edgar E. Twine & James Rude & Jim Unterschultz, 2016. "Canadian Cattle Cycles and Market Shocks," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 119-146, March.
    10. Tsion Taye Assefa & Miranda P.M. Meuwissen & Cornelis Gardebroek & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink, 2017. "Price and Volatility Transmission and Market Power in the German Fresh Pork Supply Chain," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 861-880, September.
    11. Li, Yunhan & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2021. "The Vanishing U.S. Cattle Cycle: A Stochastic Cycle Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(3), September.
    12. Jean‐Paul Chavas & Fanghui Pan, 2020. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Prices in a Vertical Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 353-369, January.

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