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On Nonlinear Dynamics: The Case of the Pork Cycle

Author

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  • Jean-Paul Chavas
  • Matthew T. Holt

Abstract

New methods for analyzing nonlinear dynamic processes are used to evaluate the hogcorn price ratio. The results present evidence of nonlinear dynamics in the pork cycle. Moreover, while GARCH processes account for some of the nonlinearities, the pork cycle is apparently characterized by more complex dynamic forms. The empirical analysis provides some evidence of the presence of chaos in the pork cycle. The results also indicate that the dynamic process generating the pork cycle is nonlinear and cannot be adequately characterized by a small number of state variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1991. "On Nonlinear Dynamics: The Case of the Pork Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 819-828.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:73:y:1991:i:3:p:819-828.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1242834
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    Cited by:

    1. Atle Oglend & Frank Asche, 2016. "Cyclical non-stationarity in commodity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1465-1479, December.
    2. Walter C. Labys & Dominique Badillo & Jean-Baptiste Lesourd, 1998. "Cycles à moyen terme des prix mondiaux des matières premières agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 16-21.
    3. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach," 144th Seminar, February 9-13, 2015, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 206210, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Marisa Faggini & Anna Parziale, 2016. "More than 20 years of chaos in economics," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 15(1), pages 53-69, June.
    5. Achim Schmillen & Joachim Möller, 2009. "Determinants of Lifetime Unemployment - A Micro Data Analysis with Censored Quantile Regressions," Working Papers 275, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    6. Lota D. Tamini & Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2005. "Developing Economic Indexes for the Quebec Hog/Pork Industry," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Tancrède Voituriez, 1998. "Dynamique non linéaire du marché mondial des huiles et des graisses," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 22-29.
    8. Ng, Desmond & Chen, Liming, 2016. "Learning to Learn: A Case for the Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis in Industrialized Markets," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Acharya, Ram N. & Gentle, Paul F. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2008. "Examining The Crb Index As An Indicator For U.S. Inflation," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6760, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Schmillen, Achim & Möller, Joachim, 2012. "Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-47.
    11. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    12. repec:ags:gewipr:259280 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chris Noell, 2007. "A look into the nature of complex systems and beyond "Stonehenge" economics: coping with complexity or ignoring it in applied economics?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(2-3), pages 219-235, September.
    14. M. Burton, 1993. "Some Illustrations Of Chaos In Commodity Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 38-50.

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