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A Revised Test of the Law of One Price Using Rational Price Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Barry K. Goodwin
  • Thomas J. Grennes
  • Michael K. Wohlgenant

Abstract

The law of one price (LOP) is an important ingredient in theories of international trade. Typical analyses of the LOP assume that parity should hold contemporaneously. This assumption overlooks temporal elements of trade. Recognizing this fact, we expect parity to hold for expected prices. Two empirical procedures are utilized to consider the LOP in international markets for U.S. agricultural commodities. The first utilizes econometric procedures to test an expectations augmented version of the LOP. A second approach uses nonparametric procedures to provide an alternative consideration of expectations. In each case, results provide support for a rational expectations view of the LOP.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry K. Goodwin & Thomas J. Grennes & Michael K. Wohlgenant, 1990. "A Revised Test of the Law of One Price Using Rational Price Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 682-693.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:72:y:1990:i:3:p:682-693.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243038
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. G. P. Zanias, 1993. "Testing For Integration In European Community Agricultural Product Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 418-427.
    2. Phillips, Llad & Pippenger, John, 2005. "Some Pitfalls in Testing the Law of One Price in Commodity Markets," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt92b16177, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    3. repec:ags:jlaare:267606 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Giulia LISTORTI, 2008. "Price Transmission Mechanisms: a Policy Investigation of International Wheat Markets," Working Papers 318, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    5. Pippenger, John, 2007. "Strictly Speaking, the Law of One Price Works in Commodity Markets," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt1sf2d60x, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    6. Kim, Jae-Gyeong, 1993. "Futures markets in an open economy," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011461, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:aen:journl:ej38-4-demello is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Khosrow Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Roy Boyd, 1999. "Testing the law of one price under the fixed and flexible exchange rate systems," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 613-616.
    9. repec:bla:jageco:v:68:y:2017:i:1:p:143-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rozelle, Scott & Park, Albert & Jin, Hehui & Huang, Jikun, 1999. "Market Emergence and Transition: Transaction Costs, Arbitrage, and Autarky in China’s Grain Markets," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 171900, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    11. Marshall, Maria I., 2002. "Political Market Impacts On Mexican Import Permits For White Corn," 2002 Annual Meeting, July 28-31, 2002, Long Beach, California 36556, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Marshall, Maria I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2003. "Endogenous Protection In The Mexican Corn And Sorghum Market," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22242, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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