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Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment: Evaluating Some Proposals for Reform

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  • Jacob A. Frenkel
  • Morris Goldstein

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze several proposals for reducing the volatility and/or misalignment of key-currency exchange rates. The proposals examined are a system of target zones, the imposition of controls or taxes on international capital flows, and a strengthening of international coordination over economic policies. We also review key characteristics of the behavior of major-currency exchange rates over the period of floating rates and examine the various criteria or standards for drawing inferences about excess volatility and misalignment. In evaluating exchange rate volatility, attention is directed toward the influence of the exchange rate regime, to the behavior of fundamentals, to the volatility of both goods prices and other asset prices, to the costs of exchange rate volatility, and to the nature of shocks facing the economy. Turning to misalignment, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of the purchasing-power-parity approach, of the underlying balance approach, and of the sustainability approach. We argue that inferences about excess exchange rate volatility and misalignment are subject to wide margins of error and that the exchange rate experience of the past 15 years is subject to multiple interpretations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment: Evaluating Some Proposals for Reform," NBER Working Papers 2894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2894
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    Cited by:

    1. Sekkat, Khalid, 2016. "Exchange rate misalignment and export diversification in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-14.
    2. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Salvatore, Dominick, 1995. "The international monetary system: Are present arrangements optimal? Editor's introduction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 443-448, October.
    4. Slimani, Slah & Ben Allem, Khawla, 2018. "Determinants of real exchange rate misalignment: An empirical analysis for MENA region," MPRA Paper 91605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ngongang, Elie, 2011. "Impact of Exchange Rate Policy on the Trade of Industrial Products in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1975 to 2007," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-27, March.
    6. Lahcen Achy & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "The European Single Currency and MENA's Exports to Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 563-582, November.
    7. Dubas, Justin M., 2009. "The Importance of the Exchange Rate Regime in Limiting Misalignment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1612-1622, October.
    8. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 446-463, September.
    9. Khalid Sekkat, 2001. "On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(1), pages 57-78, February.
    10. Slimani, Slah & Ben allem, Khaoula, 2017. "Les déterminants du misalignement du taux de change réel : Analyse empirique pour le cas de la région MENA [Determinants of misalignment of the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the MEN," MPRA Paper 81247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    12. M. Manzur, 1990. "Key Issues in Exchange Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    13. Aggarwal, Raj & Schirm, David C., 1998. "Asymmetric impact of trade balance news on asset prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 83-100, January.
    14. Kilic, Erdem, 2017. "Contagion effects of U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan in forward and spot foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 51-67.
    15. Salvatore, Dominick, 1995. "The operation and future of the international monetary system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 513-530, October.
    16. Pippenger, John, 2002. "A Better Measure of Relative Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt3tp6j494, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.

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