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Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies

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  • Ken Miyajima

Abstract

Using monthly data for four selected emerging economies, sterilised central bank foreign exchange intervention is found to have little systematic influence on the near-term nominal exchange rate expectations in the direction intended by the central banks. In other words, central bank dollar purchases to stem exchange rate appreciation or related exchange rate volatility are not associated with an adjustment of the near-term exchange rate forecasts in the direction of depreciation, and vice versa. This suggests intervention may not change the nearterm exchange rate expectations. Moreover, intervention may have had unintended effects in the sense that it can lead to undesired volatility in the exchange rate, which is consistent with previous studies.

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  • Ken Miyajima, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 414, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:414
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Costantini, Mauro & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 176, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rates Comovements and the South African Currency," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 57-68, March.
    3. repec:spr:pharme:v:4:y:2014:i:1:p:71-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ergun Ermisoglu & Yasin Akcelik & Arif Oduncu & Temel Taskin, 2014. "Effects of additional monetary tightening on exchange rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 71-79, June.
    5. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "Utilizarea cursurilor valutare drept ancore nominale antiinflaţioniste [The use of exchange rates as nominal anchors]," MPRA Paper 52415, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gasanov, Oscar, 2020. "Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed The Case of Russia," MPRA Paper 105874, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2020.

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    exchange rate expectation; foreign exchange intervention;

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