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The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-Rate Forecast Heterogeneity

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  • Michel Beine
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Estelle Dauchy
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Michel Beine & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Estelle Dauchy & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-Rate Forecast Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2002-04, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beine, Michel, 2003. "Volatility expectations and asymmetric effects of direct interventions in the FX market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 55-80, March.
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
    4. Beine, Michel & Lecourt, Christelle, 2004. "Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 215-225, December.
    5. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    6. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March.
    7. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    8. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
    9. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 1-10.
    10. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
    11. Galati, Gabriele & Melick, William & Micu, Marian, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 982-1011, October.
    12. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
    13. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, April.
    14. Michel Beine & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Christelle Lecourt, 1999. "The Impact of Foreign Exchange Interventions: New Evidence from FIGARCH Estimations," Working Papers 1999-14, CEPII research center.
    15. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "The accuracy of press reports regarding the foreign exchange interventions of the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-36, February.
    16. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
    17. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
    18. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    19. Beine, Michel, 2004. "Conditional covariances and direct central bank interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1385-1411, June.
    20. A. Bénassy-Quéré & S. Larribeau & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Models of exchange rate expectations : heterogeneous evidence from Panel data," THEMA Working Papers 99-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    21. MacDonald, Ronald, 1992. "Exchange Rate Survey Data: A Disaggregated G-7 Perspective," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(0), pages 47-62, Supplemen.
    22. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
    23. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
    24. repec:cor:louvrp:-1705 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Mark D. Flood, 1991. "Microstructure theory and the foreign exchange market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 52-70.
    26. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2003. "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 891-911, October.
    27. Frenkel, Michael & Stadtmann, Georg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2001. "The interventions of the European Central Bank: Effects, effectiveness, and policy implications," Research Notes 01-2, Deutsche Bank Research.
    28. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December.
    29. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    30. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    31. Naranjo, Andy & Nimalendran, M, 2000. "Government Intervention and Adverse Selection Costs in Foreign Exchange Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 453-477.
    32. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x.
    33. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    34. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "Some tests of market microstructure hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 203-229, October.
    36. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
    37. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro Transparency, Not Con," NBER Working Papers 11537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "International Money and Finance," Working papers 2008-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    39. Popper, Helen & Montgomery, John D., 2001. "Information sharing and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 295-316, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank; FOREIGN EXHANGE MARKETS; Key currencies; Dollar; Yen; Euro; FORECASTING; MONETARY POLICY;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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