IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Talks, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks' FX reaction functions

  • Oscar Bernal Diaz
  • Jean-Yves Gnabo

This paper generalizes central banks’ FX interventions reaction functions to include oral interventions alongside actual ones. Using Japanese data for the 1991-2004 period, we estimate an ordered probit explaining the occurrence of each type of intervention and evaluating the extent to which oral and actual interventions are substitutes or complements. Our results indicate that monetary authorities tend to adopt progressively stronger measures as the exchange rate behaves in an increasingly unfavorable way. This suggests that words and acts are used as complements only in extreme cases.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/13622/1/dul-0089.pdf
File Function: dul-0089
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series DULBEA Working Papers with number 07-03.RS.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by: ULB, DULBEA
Handle: RePEc:dul:wpaper:07-03rs
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Stefan Boes & Rainer Winkelmann, 2006. "Ordered response models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 167-181, March.
  2. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Stein, Jeremy C, 1989. "Cheap Talk and the Fed: A Theory of Imprecise Policy Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 32-42, March.
  4. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Were Verbal Efforts to Support the Euro Effective? A High-Frequency Analysis of ECB Statements," DNB Working Papers 033, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Roughing it Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  7. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
  8. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1651-1672, December.
  9. Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely & Franz C. Palm, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility, its continuous and jump components," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 201-223.
  10. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  11. GNABO, Jean-Yves & LAURENT, Sébastien & LECOURT, Christelle, . "Does transparency in central bank intervention policy bring noise to the FX market? The case of the Bank of Japan," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2136, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  12. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
  13. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "Modeling the intensity of foreign exchange intervention activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 347-351, December.
  14. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
  15. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2883n7z5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  16. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002. "Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February.
  17. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1986. "Monetary mystique: Secrecy and central banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-92, January.
  19. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
  20. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  21. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16.
  23. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Strategies of exchange rate policy in G3 economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 68-74, October.
  25. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2003. "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 891-911, October.
  26. Beine, Michel & Lecourt, Christelle, 2004. "Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 215-225, December.
  27. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
  28. BEINE, Michel & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1706, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  29. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
  30. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
  31. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal Diaz, 2007. "Why do Central Banks intervene secretly ?preliminary evidence of the BoJ," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10421, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  32. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x.
  33. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  34. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  35. Almekinders, G.J. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Other publications TiSEM 9ca974cc-1549-4752-8dbe-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  36. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
  37. Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Oral Interventions Versus Actual Interventions in Fx Markets - An Event-Study Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1079-1106, 07.
  38. repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  40. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  41. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2005. "Is ECB Communication Effective?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0682, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dul:wpaper:07-03rs. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benoit Pauwels)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.