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Do jumps mislead the FX market?

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  • Jean-Yves Gnabo
  • Jérôme Lahaye
  • Sébastien Laurent
  • Christelle Lecourt

Abstract

This paper investigates the link between jumps in the exchange rate process and rumours of central bank interventions. Using the case of Japan, we analyse specifically whether jumps trigger false reports of intervention (i.e. an intervention is reported when it did not occur). Intraday jumps are extracted using a non-parametric technique recently proposed by Lee and Mykland in 2008 and by Andersen et al . in 2007, and later modified by Boudt et al . in 2011. Rumours are identified by using a unique database of Reuters and Dow Jones newswires. Our results suggest that a significant number of jumps on the YEN/USD have been falsely interpreted by the market as being the result of a central bank intervention. The paper has policy implications in terms of central bank interventions. We show that in times where the central bank is known to intervene, some investors may attach a lot of weight to central bank interventions as a source of exchange rate movement, leading to a false ‘intervention explanation’ for observed jumps.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Yves Gnabo & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:10:p:1521-1532
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2012.697186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.

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