IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Do jumps mislead the FX market?

  • Jean-Yves Gnabo
  • Jér�me Lahaye
  • Sébastien Laurent
  • Christelle Lecourt

This paper investigates the link between jumps in the exchange rate process and rumours of central bank interventions. Using the case of Japan, we analyse specifically whether jumps trigger false reports of intervention (i.e. an intervention is reported when it did not occur). Intraday jumps are extracted using a non-parametric technique recently proposed by Lee and Mykland in 2008 and by Andersen et al . in 2007, and later modified by Boudt et al . in 2011. Rumours are identified by using a unique database of Reuters and Dow Jones newswires. Our results suggest that a significant number of jumps on the YEN/USD have been falsely interpreted by the market as being the result of a central bank intervention. The paper has policy implications in terms of central bank interventions. We show that in times where the central bank is known to intervene, some investors may attach a lot of weight to central bank interventions as a source of exchange rate movement, leading to a false ‘intervention explanation’ for observed jumps.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2012.697186
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 1521-1532

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:10:p:1521-1532
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20

Order Information: Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Klein, Michael W., 1993. "The accuracy of reports of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 644-653, December.
  2. Christelle Lecourt & Helene Raymond, 2006. "Central bank interventions in industrialized countries: a characterization based on survey results," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 123-138.
  3. William Melick & Gabriele Galati, 1999. "Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96," BIS Working Papers 77, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez, 2003. "When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?," NBER Working Papers 9875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Neil Shephard & Ole Barndorff-Nielsen, 2003. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Does transparency in central bank intervention policy bring noise to the FX market?: The case of the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 94-111, February.
  7. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December.
  8. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
  11. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe & Laurent, Sébastien, 2011. "Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 353-367, March.
  12. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Events that Shook the Market," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm149, Yale School of Management.
  13. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
  14. Oberlechner, Thomas & Hocking, Sam, 2004. "Information sources, news, and rumors in financial markets: Insights into the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 407-424, June.
  15. Dominguez & K., 1997. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 412, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  16. Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher Neely & Franz Palm, 2007. "Central Bank intervention and exchange rate volatility: its continuous and jump components," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. Martin Martens & Yuan-Chen Chang & Stephen J. Taylor, 2002. "A Comparison of Seasonal Adjustment Methods When Forecasting Intraday Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 283-299.
  18. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
  19. Fair, Ray C., 2003. "Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 307-341, June.
  20. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  21. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  22. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  23. LAHAYE, Jérôme & LAURENT, Sébastien & NEELY, Christopher J., . "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2413, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  24. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Dobrislav Dobrev, 2007. "No-Arbitrage Semi-Martingale Restrictions for Continuous-Time Volatility Models subject to Leverage Effects, Jumps and i.i.d. Noise: Theory and Testable Distributional Implications," NBER Working Papers 12963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Anna Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention as a Policy Tool," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 319-339, December.
  26. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
  28. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Beine,M. & Palm,F.C. & Laurent,S., 2003. "Central Bank Forex Interventions Assessed Using Realized Moments," Research Memorandum 057, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  30. Michael Frenkel & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2002. "The Accuracy of Press Reports Regarding the Foreign Exchange Interventions of the Bank of Japan," Kiel Working Papers 1108, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  31. Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2006-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  32. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. George J. Jiang & Ingrid Lo & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery -- Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Working Papers 08-22, Bank of Canada.
  34. Brownlees, C.T. & Gallo, G.M., 2006. "Financial econometric analysis at ultra-high frequency: Data handling concerns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2232-2245, December.
  35. Beine, Michel & Lecourt, Christelle, 2004. "Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 215-225, December.
  36. Christopher J. Neely & S. Rubun Dey, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 417-464.
  37. Admati, Anat R., 1991. "The informational role of prices : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 347-361, October.
  38. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September.
  39. Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
  40. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002. "Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February.
  41. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:10:p:1521-1532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.