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Government intervention in the foreign exchange market

  • Owen F. Humpage

This article offers a survey of the literature on foreign exchange intervention, including sections on the theoretical channels through which intervention might affect exchange rates and a summary of the empirical findings. The survey emphasizes that intervention is intended to provide monetary authorities with an means of influencing their exchange rates independent from monetary policy, and tends to evaluate theoretical channels and empirical results from this perspective.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0315.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0315
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  1. Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Euro: Institutional Framework, News and Intervention," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Owen F. Humpage, 1996. "U.S. intervention: assessing the probability of success," Working Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-18, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Aug 2003.
  5. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
  6. Naranjo, Andy & Nimalendran, M, 2000. "Government Intervention and Adverse Selection Costs in Foreign Exchange Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 453-77.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  9. LeBaron, B., 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreing Exchange Intervention," Working papers 9445r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1992. "The Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10.
  12. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  13. Aguilar, Javiera & Nydahl, Stefan, 2000. "Central bank intervention and exchange rates: the case of Sweden," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 303-322, December.
  14. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate; Have Interventions Mattered?," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  17. repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Rasmus Fatum, 2002. "Post-Plaza intervention in the DEM/USD exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 556-567, August.
  19. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 1998. "Intraday effects of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 191-210, February.
  20. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 1999. "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidece from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 54-69, February.
  22. Almekinders, G.J. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1994. "Daily Bundesbank and federal reserve interventions : Are they a reaction to changes in the level and volatility of the DM/$-rate?," Other publications TiSEM e583abfb-39f0-4c9d-8848-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  23. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
  24. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1999. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison, 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  27. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
  28. Christopher J. Neely, 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and central bank intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading rule profits," Working Papers 2000-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  29. Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Central Bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10435, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  30. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  31. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
  32. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
  33. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements.
  34. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
  35. Hutchison, Michael M, 2003. "Intervention and Exchange Rate Stabilization Policy in Developing Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 109-27, Spring.
  36. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Foreign Exchange Market Intervention an Alternative to Monetary Policy? Evidence from Japan," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-11, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  37. Richard Payne, 2001. "A Transaction Level Study of the Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp355, Financial Markets Group.
  38. Hali Edison & Paul Cashin & Hong Liang, 2006. "Foreign exchange intervention and the Australian dollar: has it mattered?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 155-171.
  39. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
  40. Reeves, Silke Fabian, 1997. "Exchange rate management when sterilized interventions represent signals of monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 339-360.
  41. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
  42. Popper, Helen & Montgomery, John D., 2001. "Information sharing and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 295-316, December.
  43. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16, December.
  44. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2002. "The determinants of foreign exchange intervention by central banks: evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 619-649, October.
  45. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  46. Humpage, Owen F., 2000. "The United States as an informed foreign-exchange speculator," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 287-302, December.
  47. Rogers, J. M. & Siklos, P. L., 2003. "Foreign exchange market intervention in two small open economies: the Canadian and Australian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 393-416, June.
  48. John B. Carlson & Jean M. McIntire & James B. Thomson, 1995. "Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 20-30.
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