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A jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonysága. Nemzetközi tapasztalatok és elméleti megfontolások
[Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experiences and theoretical considerations]

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  • Kiss M., Norbert

Abstract

Az utóbbi időben a főbb jegybankok intervenciós tevékenysége csökkent ugyan, de számos feltörekvő, illetve inflációs célt követő ország esetében az intervenció továbbra is aktív jegybanki eszköz maradt. A tanulmány a jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonyságával foglalkozó szakirodalmat tekinti át. Bemutatjuk a témával kapcsolatos elméleteket és nemzetközi tapasztalatokat, ezenkívül azokat a tényezőket, amelyek a különböző körülmények között leginkább befolyásolhatják az intervenció hatékonyságát. Az eredmények alapján csak nagyon óvatos következtetéseket vonhatunk le az intervenció hatékonyságát illetően: az intervenció lehet hatékony, amiben elsősorban a jegybanki beavatkozás piaci várakozásokat és információaggregálási folyamatot alakító hatása játszik meghatározó szerepet. A hatékonyság úgy növelhető, ha a jegybank konkrét céljának figyelembevételével választja ki a leginkább megfelelő intervenciós eljárást, és az intervenciós stratégiáját rugalmasan alakítja a körülmények és tapasztalatai alapján. Stratégiai célkitűzések esetén a nyíltan, esetleg más jegybankokkal összehangoltan végzett, a követett makrogazdasági politika által is támogatott intervenció lehet hatékony. A taktikai célok elérését segítheti, ha a jegybank csendesen, megfelelő időzítéssel, makrogazdasági hírek bejelentése környékén vagy nagy piaci forgalom mellett interveniál. Bármilyen intervenció esetében a jegybanknak tudatában kell lennie, hogy ezzel az eszközzel elsősorban rövid vagy középtávon képes befolyásolni az árfolyamot. A tartós árfolyamváltozáshoz vagy az intervenció monetáris politikai lépésekkel történő támogatására, vagy a fundamentumok megváltozására van szükség. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E58, F31, G15.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiss M., Norbert, 2005. "A jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonysága. Nemzetközi tapasztalatok és elméleti megfontolások [Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experienc," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 846-872.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:803
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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