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Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS



This paper studies the effects of central bank intervention during the 1992- 1993 EMS crises on the D-mark/peseta and D-mark/French franc exchange rate. In particular, it is analyzed how interventions affected the probability of a speculative attack and market participants’ expectations about realignments. The findings provide evidence that interventions seem to have increased both the expected realignment rate and the probability of a speculative attack. Furthermore, there is some evidence that this effect arises for publicly known but not for secret interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Stix, 2002. "Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 80, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:80

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
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    3. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
    4. Pantelis Kalaitzidakis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Thanasis Stengos, 2003. "Rankings of Academic Journals and Institutions in Economics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(6), pages 1346-1366, December.
    5. Katrin Wesche, 1997. "The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 371-391, October.
    6. Alan B. Krueger, 2003. "Economic Considerations and Class Size," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(485), pages 34-63, February.
    7. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brandner, Peter & Grech, Harald & Stix, Helmut, 2006. "The effectiveness of central bank intervention in the EMS: The post 1993 experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 580-597, June.
    2. Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta & Marco Vega, 2006. "A BVAR Forecasting Model for Peruvian Inflation," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 117-141, July-Dece.
    3. Aleš Bulíø, 2005. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 206-231, May.
    4. Kiss M., Norbert, 2005. "A jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonysága. Nemzetközi tapasztalatok és elméleti megfontolások
      [Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experienc
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 846-872.
    5. Kenneth Coates, 2006. "Measurement Problems in Household International Remittances," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 95-115, July-Dece.
    6. Isabelle Strauss-Kahn, 2006. "Secrecy in Foreign exchange Interventions: the Point of View of a Practitioner in a European Context," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 159-179, July-Dece.
    7. Trevor Campbell, 2006. "The Impact of Barbados’ Investment Climate on its Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 143-157, July-Dece.

    More about this item


    Foreign Exchange Intervention; European Monetary System; Markov Switching;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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