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Why did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post 1993 Experience

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Abstract

In this paper, we present stylized facts of exchange rate and intervention behavior in the Exchange Rate Mechanism I (ERM I), in particular in light of the recent literature on multilateral target zone models. We estimate bilateral exchange rate distributions of the maximum spot rate deviations of six ERM-currencies explicitly taking the multilateral setting of the ERM I into account. In a further analysis, we estimate short term reaction functions for the Banque de Belgique, the Danmarks Nationalbank, the Banco d’Espa˜na, the Banque de France, the Central Bank of Ireland and the Banco de Portugal by applying a Tobit analysis. The period under review ranges from August 1993 to April 1998. Daily exchange rate and intervention data are used. The exchange rate position in the band (deviation of the DEM-spot rates from the DEM-central parity) significantly induces intervention activity. There is less evidence that changes in volatility trigger central bank intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post 1993 Experience," Working Papers 77, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:77
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2004. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 46-69.
    2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2004:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kiss M., Norbert, 2005. "A jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonysága. Nemzetközi tapasztalatok és elméleti megfontolások [Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experienc," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 846-872.
    4. Balázs Égert & Maroje Lang, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions in a small emerging market: the case of Croatia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 35-62, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Exchange Intervention; European Monetary System; Central Bank’s Reaction Function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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