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Intramarginal Intervention in the EMS and the Target-Zone Model of Exchange-Rate Behavior

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  • Kathryn M. Dominguez
  • Peter B. Kenen

Abstract

Empirical work on exchange-rate behavior under a target-zone regime has used data produced by the European Monetary System (ENS) and has found that the data contradict important predictions made by the standard target-zone model. We argue that the contradictions reflect a misinterpretation of policies pursued by the ENS countries. They intervened intramarginally, to keep exchange rates well within the target zone, rather then intervening at the edges of the zone to prevent rates from crossing them. In the Besle-Nyborg Agreement of 1987, however, the ENS countries agreed to make fuller use of the band, and the effects of the agreement show up strongly in the data. Exchange rates behave differently after the agreement than they did before. The effect appears clearly in the behavior of the French franc and less decisively in the behavior of the Italian lira. The paper concludes by examining and rejecting alternative explanations for the observed differences in exchange-rate behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn M. Dominguez & Peter B. Kenen, 1991. "Intramarginal Intervention in the EMS and the Target-Zone Model of Exchange-Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3670
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    1. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1991. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-1372.
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    3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
    4. Miller, M. & Weller, P., 1988. "Exchange Rate Bands And Realignments In A Stationary Stochastic Setting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 317, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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    6. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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    8. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    9. Dominguez, Kathryn Mary, 1990. "Market responses to coordinated central bank intervention," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-163, January.
    10. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    12. Pesenti, P.A., 1990. "Perforate And Imperforate Currency Bands: Exchange Rate Management And The Term Structure Of Interest Rate Differentials," Papers 626, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    13. Kenen, Peter B, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: What Role for Intervention?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 194-199, May.
    14. Paul R. Krugman, 1987. "Trigger Strategies and Price Dynamics in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 2459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Pill, Huw, 1996. "Evaluating target zone models in EMS data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 199-204, August.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post 1993 Experience," Working Papers 77, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why Did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post-1993 Experience," WIFO Working Papers 192, WIFO.
    7. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    8. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    9. Peter Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "FX Options in Target Zone," Papers 1512.01527, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    10. Flandreau, Marc, 1998. "The burden of intervention: externalities in multilateral exchange rates arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 137-171, June.
    11. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August.
    12. Torres, Jose L., 2000. "Stochastic intramarginal interventions in target zones," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 249-262, December.

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