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Exchange Rate Bands And Realignments In A Stationary Stochastic Setting

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • Weller, Paul

Abstract

The extent to which exchange rate management can coexist with an independent monetary policy is examined in the context of a model with exchange rate bands. Using a Dornbusch model in which stochastic stocks are added to the Phillips curve, we analyse the implications of assuming that the monetary authorities follow certain simple rules for realigning the band when fundamentals have drifted too far from equilibrium. Assuming that information about whether the band is to be defended or there is to be a realignment is revealed at the point when the exchange rate hits the edge of the band, we show how the path of the exchange rate can be completely characterised in terms of solution to a second order non linear differential equation -- together with jumps in the rate at the edge of the band, which satisfy a zero-profit arbitrage condition. When the realignment is expected with certainty, hysteresis is introduced into the behaviour of the exchange rate

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  • Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, "undated". "Exchange Rate Bands And Realignments In A Stationary Stochastic Setting," Economic Research Papers 268344, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:268344
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.268344
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    1. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1987. "The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders," NBER Working Papers 2395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1988. "Competitiveness, Realignment, and Speculation: The Role of Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 2539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-538, June.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    2. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Feijó Filho, Cypriano Lopes, 1994. "Bandas de cambio : teoria, evidencia empirica e sua possivel aplicação no Brasil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 234, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1325-1353, November.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
    5. A.J. Hallet, 1998. "When Do Target Zones Work? An Examination of Exchange Rate Targeting as a Device for Coordinating Economic Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 115-138, April.
    6. Dean Corbae & Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1998. "Endogenous realignments and the sustainability of a target," Working Papers 1994-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Kontulainen, Jarmo & Lehmussaari, Olli-Pekka & Suvanto, Antti, 1990. "The Finnish experience on maintaining a currency band in the 1980s," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 26/1990, Bank of Finland.
    8. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-1399, November.
    9. Michael Hu & Christine Jiang & Christos Tsoukalas, 2004. "The volatility impact of the European monetary system on member and non-member currencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 313-325.
    10. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 1996. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with jumps," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 111, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Dominquez, Kathryn M. & Kenen, Peter B., 1992. "Intramarginal intervention in the EMS and the target-zone model of exchange-rate behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1523-1532, December.

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