The volatility impact of the European monetary system on member and non-member currencies
The objective of the European Monetary System (EMS) is to increase the coherence of its member economies and to facilitate the process towards the European Monetary Union. One major element in the process has been the coordinated effort in reducing the volatility of the member currencies through the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To the same end, the Basle-Nyborg agreement of the European Union (EU) central bankers aims at strengthening the credibility of the EMS through providing credit facilities for intramarginal interventions. In this paper, the impact that the establishment of the EMS and the ratification of the Basle-Nyborg agreement had on the exchange rates of all EU currencies is studied. A multivariate GARCH(1,1) model is applied to all EU exchange rates in three subperiods: from January 1975 to the establishment of the EMS (March 1979); from March 1979 to the Basle-Nyborg agreement (September 1987); and from September 1987 to October 1991. Comparisons of the estimated parameters are performed across subperiods and between EMS and non-EMS currencies. The characteristics of the estimated conditional variances across subperiods are further examined with nonparametric tests. The findings suggest that the EMS and, especially, the Basle-Nyborg agreement have stabilized the European currencies.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAFE20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989.
"The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
- Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1986. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model," Special Studies Papers 205, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Miller, M. & Weller, P., 1988. "Exchange Rate Bands And Realignments In A Stationary Stochastic Setting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 317, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1989. "Exchange Rate Bands and Realignments in a Stationary Stochastic Setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "Stochastic trends and jumps in EMS exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-727, December.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
- Michael J. Artis & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Stabilizing Effect of the ERMon Exchange Rates and Interest Rates; An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 93/67, .
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Baillie and Bollerslev GARCH models with day-of-week effects," Statistical Software Components RTZ00172, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1995. "European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 61-86.
- Hali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1994. "European monetary arrangements: implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," International Finance Discussion Papers 468, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
- Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," Papers 542, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," CEPR Discussion Papers 852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
- Bera, Anil K. & Jarque, Carlos M., 1982. "Model specification tests : A simultaneous approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 59-82, October.
- Diebold, F X & Pauly, P, 1988. "Has the EMS Reduced Member-Country Exchange Rate Volatility?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-102. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)