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European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility

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  • Mali J. Edison
  • Linda S. Kole

Abstract

This paper uses the recent history of the ERM to gain insights into what might happen to exchange rates on the road to EMU. to do this, the paper examines the variability of exchange rates, the transmission of monetary policy between countries, the role of the dollar in ERM exchange rate crises, and ERM members' credibility as measured by the realignment probabilities prior to the September 1992 crisis. We identify two factors that might have contributed to the September 1992 crisis: high German interest rates and weakness of the US dollar. We find that behaviour of exchange rates has changed over time and differs between ERM and non-ERM currencies. We also demonstrate that changes in German short-term interest rates influence interest rates in other ERM countries and vice versa. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd. 1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Mali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1995. "European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 61-86.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:1:y:1995:i:1:p:61-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hali Edison & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 351-368, October.
    2. Robert N. McCauley, 1997. "The euro and the dollar," BIS Working Papers 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Robert McCauley, 1999. "The Euro and the Dollar, 1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-133, February.
    4. Vuyyuri, S., 2004. "Linkages of Indian Interest Rates with US and Japanese Rates," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
    5. R. Sean Craig, 1994. "Who will join EMU? Impact of the Maastricht convergence criteria on economic policy choice and performance," International Finance Discussion Papers 480, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Thierry Roncalli, 1996. "Retour à la moyenne dans les cours du change du mécanisme de change européen : 1987-1995," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 189-205.
    7. Johannes Groeneveld, 1998. "From the ERM with Love: Monetary Spillover Effects to Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 331-345, January.
    8. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?," Working Papers 1994-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Soettem, Frode, 2001. " Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 127-145, March.
    10. Kasman, Adnan & Kirbas-Kasman, Saadet & Turgutlu, Evrim, 2008. "Monetary policy convergence of potential EMU accession countries: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 340-350, March.
    11. Michael Hu & Christine Jiang & Christos Tsoukalas, 2004. "The volatility impact of the European monetary system on member and non-member currencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 313-325.
    12. Hans Groeneveld, 1995. "Monetary Spill-over Effects in the ERM: The Case of Austria, a Former Shadow Member," Working Papers 20, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    13. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    14. Hali J. Edison & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Monetary policy independence in the ERM: was there any?," International Finance Discussion Papers 665, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Yamani, Ehab A. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2014. "Financial crises and the global value premium: Revisiting Fama and French," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 115-136.

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