Explaining Devaluation Expectations in the EMS
This paper is an attempt to explain devaluation expectations in the ERM with macroeconomic fundamentals. Two different measures of devaluation expectations are used; expectations estimated using the drift-adjustment method of Bertola and Svensson  and the directly observable interest rate differential. The interest rate differential seems more closely connected to macroeconomic fundamentals than the estimates stemming from the drift- adjustment metod. For the ERM as a whole, an expanded theoretic model of exchange rate determination explains a considerable part of the devaluation expectations, whereas for individual countries additional variables are important, and the relationships are ambiguous and country specific.
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|Date of creation:||Jun 1994|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Finnish Economic Papers, 1995, pages 63-81|
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- Krugman, Paul R, 1991.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991.
"The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," NBER Working Papers 3394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Vincent Koen, 1991. "Testing the Credibility of the Belgian Hard Currency Policy," IMF Working Papers 91/79, International Monetary Fund.
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