Explaining devaluation expectations in the EMS
This paper is an attempt to explain devaluation expectations in the ERM with macroeconomic fundamentals. Two different measures of devaluation expectations are used; expectations estimated using the drift-adjustment method of Bertola and Svensson (1993), and the directly observable interest rate differential. The interest rate differential seems more closely connected to macroeconomic fundamentals than the estimates stemming from the drift-adjustment method. For the ERM as a whole, an expanded monetary model of exchange rate determination explains a considerable part ofthe devaluation expectations, whereas for individual countries additional variables are important, but the relationships are ambiguous and country-specific.
Volume (Year): 8 (1995)
Issue (Month): 2 (Autumn)
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- Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993.
"European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall,"
NBER Working Papers
4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Vincent Koen, 1991. "Testing the Credibility of the Belgian Hard Currency Policy," IMF Working Papers 91/79, International Monetary Fund.
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