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Devaluation Expectations: the Swedish Krona 1982-1991

  • Lindberg, H.
  • Svensson, L.E.
  • Soderlind, P.

Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1982-1991 with several methods. First the "simplest test" is applied under either only the minimal assumption of "no positive minimum profit" or the additional assumption of uncovered interest parity. Then a more precise method suggested by Bertola and Svensson is used, in which expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, estimated in several ways, are subtracted from interest rate differentials. In addition the probability density of the time of devaluations is estimated. Finally, estimated devaluation expectations are to some extent explained by a few macrovariables and parliament elections.

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Paper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 495.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:495
Contact details of provider: Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.
Phone: +46-8-162000
Fax: +46-8-161443
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  3. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Gordon M. Bodnar & Leonardo Bartolini, 1992. "Target Zones and Forward Rates in a Model with Repeated Realignments," IMF Working Papers 92/22, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 217-292.
  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
  8. Axel A. Weber, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 20-91, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  9. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
  10. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
  11. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility; Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS," IMF Working Papers 91/96, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Jeffrey Frankel & Steven Phillips, 1991. "The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?," NBER Working Papers 3819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Weber, Axel A, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  17. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  19. Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Bodnar, G., 1991. "Target Zones and Euro-Rates: A Model of Eurocurrency Interest Rate Differentials in the European Monetary System," Papers 91-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  21. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  23. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
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