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Devaluation Expectations: the Swedish Krona 1982-1991

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  • Lindberg, H.
  • Svensson, L.E.
  • Soderlind, P.

Abstract

Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1982-1991 with several methods. First the "simplest test" is applied under either only the minimal assumption of "no positive minimum profit" or the additional assumption of uncovered interest parity. Then a more precise method suggested by Bertola and Svensson is used, in which expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, estimated in several ways, are subtracted from interest rate differentials. In addition the probability density of the time of devaluations is estimated. Finally, estimated devaluation expectations are to some extent explained by a few macrovariables and parliament elections.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lindberg, H. & Svensson, L.E. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: the Swedish Krona 1982-1991," Papers 495, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:495
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    1. Cukierman, Alex & Spiegel, Yossi & Leiderman, Leonardo, 2004. "The choice of exchange rate bands: balancing credibility and flexibility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 379-408, March.
    2. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    3. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    4. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    5. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16, June.
    6. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    7. Lehmussaari, Olli-Pekka & Suvanto, Antti & Vajanne, Laura, 1992. "The currency band and credibility : The Finnish experience," Research Discussion Papers 37/1992, Bank of Finland.
    8. Marianne Nessen, 1997. "Exchange Rate Expectations, the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-136, April.
    9. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.

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