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Realignment Risk and Currency Option Pricing in Target Zones

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  • Bernard Dumas
  • L. Peter Jennergren
  • Bertil Naslund

Abstract

This paper extends the Krugman target zone model by including a realignment mechanism. Various properties of that realignment mechanism are discussed. The movement of the exchange rate is governed both by a Wiener process on fundamental and by a Poisson jump process with endogenous realignment size. The realignment mechanism is such that (except in cases where a speculative attack occurs) no jump in fundamental is needed to accompany the jump in the exchange rate. A risk neutral valuation of currency options is constructed. Some properties of option values under realignment risk are illustrated by numerical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993. "Realignment Risk and Currency Option Pricing in Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 4458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4458
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993. "Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 4522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Lioui, Abraham, 1998. "Currency risk hedging: Futures vs. forward," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-81, January.
    4. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Mordecai Avriel & Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv, 2013. "Inflation Derivatives Under Inflation Target Regimes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 911-938, October.
    6. Young-Kyu Moh, 2006. "Continuous-time model of uncovered interest parity with regulated jump-diffusion interest differential," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2523-2533.
    7. Naszódi, Anna, 2002. "A sávos árfolyamú deviza megközelítése opciók segítségével
      [The option-based description of the exchange rate in a target-zone system]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 25-44.
    8. Alexandra Janssen & Rahel Studer, 2014. "The Swiss franc's honeymoon," ECON - Working Papers 170, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jan 2017.
    9. Ekvall, Niklas & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1997. "Currency option pricing with mean reversion and uncovered interest parity: A revision of the Garman-Kohlhagen model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 41-59, July.
    10. Urban J. Jermann, 2016. "Financial Markets’ Views about the Euro-Swiss Franc Floor," NBER Working Papers 21977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
    12. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
    13. Peter Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "FX Options in Target Zone," Papers 1512.01527, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    14. Bardhan, Indrajit, 1995. "Exchange rate shocks, currency options and the Siegel paradox," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 441-458, June.
    15. Dumas, Bernard & Jennergren, L. Peter & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Comment on 'Exchange rate shocks, currency options and the Siegel paradox' by Indrajit Bardhan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 459-460, June.
    16. Naszódi, Anna, 2004. "A sáveltolás árfolyamhatásának vizsgálata opciós modell keretei között
      [Target-zone rearrangement and exchange-rate behaviour in an options-based model]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 638-658.
    17. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "Der Informationsgehalt von Derivaten für die Geldpolitik: Implizite Volatilitäten und Wahrscheinlichkeiten," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    19. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Fathi Abid & Moncef Habibi, 2010. "Hedging Transaction Exposure within the Context of a Basket Foreign Exchange Rate Arrangement," Working Papers 523, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2010.
    21. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    22. repec:spr:annopr:v:262:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2297-y is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Peter M. Garber & Michael G. Spencer, 1996. "Dynamic Hedging and the Interest Rate Defense," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 209-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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