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Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME

  • Antoine Magnier
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    [spa] Presentación simple de la teoría de las zonas objetivo y de sus aplicaciones al estudio del SME, por Antoine Magnier. En el presente artículo se propone en primer lugar una presentación simple de la teoría de las zonas objetivo de tipo de cambio, y se muestra hasta qué punto dicha teoría proporciona un marco teórico pertinente para el estudio del SME. Acto seguido se analizan sus puntos débiles empíricos. No obstante, la realidad del SME puede comprenderse con mayor facilidad realizando determinadas adaptaciones, entre las cuales cabe destacar la supresión de la hipótesis de credibilidad perfecta. Esto permite poner de relieve un notable refuerzo, en los ultimos años, de la credibilidad de los márgenes de fluctuación del SME, y en particular los del franco francés respecte al deutschemark. [fre] Une présentation simple de la théorie des zones cibles et de ses applications à l'étude du SME, par Antoine Magnier. Cet article propose une présentation simple de la théorie des zones cibles de taux de change et montre dans quelle mesure elle fournit un cadre théorique pertinent pour l'étude du SME. Ses faiblesses empiriques sont analysées. Cependant certaines adaptations, dont surtout la levée de l'hypothèse de crédibilité parfaite, permettent de mieux appréhender la réalité du SME. On peut alors mettre en évidence un net renforcement, ces dernières années, de la crédibilité des marges de fluctuation du SME, en particulier celles du franc français face au deutschemark. [ger] Eine einfache Darstellung der Theorie der Zielbereiche und ihrer Anwendungen auf die Untersuchung des EWS, von Antoine Magnier. Dieser Artikel enthalt eine einfache Darstellung der Theorie der Wechselkurs-Zielbereiche und zeigt, inwiefern sie einen relevanten theoretischen Rahmen für die Untersuchung des EWS darstellt. Hierbei werden ihre empirische Schwächen analysiert. Manche Anpassungen, insbesondere die Aufhebung der Hypothèse der vollkommenen Glaubwürdigkeit, ermöglichen allerdings ein besseres Verständnis der Realität des EWS. Es läßt sich dann eine deutliche Stärkung der Glaubwürdigkeit der EWS-Schwankungsbreiten, vor allem zwischen dem franzôsischen Franc und der Deutschen Mark wàhrend der letzten Jahre erkennen. [eng] A Basic Presentation of the Theory of Target Zone and how it Applies to Studies on the EMS, by Antoine Magnier. A basic presentation of the theory of target zones for exchange rates is developed in this paper showing to what degree it provides a theoretical framework relevant for studies on the EMS. Its empirical weaknesses are analyzed. Some of the adaptations, however, especially the removal of the perfect credibility hypothesis, help us to better understand what the EMS actually is. Over the past years, the credibility of the EMS's fluctuation margins has grown increasingly, particularly those regarding the French Franc against the Deutschemark.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.1992.5295
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_1992_num_104_3_5295
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 104 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 87-113

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1992_num_104_3_5295
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1992.5295
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop

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