IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/554.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS

Author

Listed:
  • Weber, Axel A

Abstract

Exchange rate target zone models postulate that `in the absence of intervention' exchange rates are driven by their fundamentals, which in this case are assumed to follow an unregulated Brownian motion process-the continuous time equivalent of a random walk (with drift). Such random walk behaviour of freely floating exchange rates is a well-documented stylized fact. The possibility of policy intervention in foreign exchange markets, however, may lead to stochastic process switching: in a perfectly credible target zone the commitment of policy-makers to intervene at the boundaries of a band for the fundamentals gives rise to speculative bubbles, which stabilize the exchange rate within a narrower band. Inframarginal intervention may add to these stabilizing effects. On the other hand, in target zones which are imperfectly credible, policy intervention may also take the form of a realignment, a permanent jump in the central parity. The present paper employs a Bayesian approach to estimate the relative probabilities of these forms of stochastic process switching by using daily data on the Deutschmark exchange rate for the EMS currencies. The analysis reveals that for these EMS target zones intervention and realignment probabilities have recently declined drastically, and that the ERM is now close to being a fully credible peg.

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Axel A, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:554
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=554
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.
    3. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
    4. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMS; Intervention; Realignment; Target Zones;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.