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Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit From a Markov-Switching Model


  • M. Isabel Campos
  • M. Araceli Rodríguez


The 90’s could be characterized as a time in which both developed and emerging countries have su¤ered important episodes of exchange rate instability; some of these periods have resulted in exchange rate devaluations and others, in important exchange rate depreciations. We are interested in the knowledge and explanation of such moments of turbulence in order to avoid or even forecast future crises. This paper focuses on the study of the di¤erent moments of speculative pressure in Europe and particularly on the Spanish peseta during the target zone period. We use a Binary Dependent Variable Model (Logit Method) to estimate the readjustment probability in a target zone. Our dependent variable is calculated from a Markov-Switching model on the Spanish-German interest rate di¤erential. We show that this methodology is appropriate.
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  • M. Isabel Campos & M. Araceli Rodríguez, "undated". "Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit From a Markov-Switching Model," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-05, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdadef:00-05

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
    6. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-175, January.
    7. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    12. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez López, Mª A., 2002. "Crisis de credibilidad de la peseta en las bandas del SME. Una aplicación del Modelo de Markov con saltos de régimen," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 599-626, Diciembre.
    2. Morales Vásquez, Daniel, 2011. "Presiones cambiarias en el Perú: Un enfoque no lineal," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 57-71.

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    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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