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Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit From a Markov-Switching Model

  • M. Isabel Campos
  • M. Araceli Rodríguez

The 90’s could be characterized as a time in which both developed and emerging countries have su¤ered important episodes of exchange rate instability; some of these periods have resulted in exchange rate devaluations and others, in important exchange rate depreciations. We are interested in the knowledge and explanation of such moments of turbulence in order to avoid or even forecast future crises. This paper focuses on the study of the di¤erent moments of speculative pressure in Europe and particularly on the Spanish peseta during the target zone period. We use a Binary Dependent Variable Model (Logit Method) to estimate the readjustment probability in a target zone. Our dependent variable is calculated from a Markov-Switching model on the Spanish-German interest rate di¤erential. We show that this methodology is appropriate.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers on International Economics and Finance with number 00-05.

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  1. Bruce Mizrach, 1993. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Research Paper 9302, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  3. Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Seminar Papers 621, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1996. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995. "Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Staff Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July.
  8. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  9. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  10. Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  11. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
  13. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:3:p:669-82 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  16. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  18. Juan Ayuso & Maria Perez-Jurado, 1997. "Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 471-484.
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