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Censured Exchange Rates in a Discrete Time Target Zones Model: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark Case

  • Campos, M. Isabel
  • Herrera, Julio
  • Jimenez-Ridruejo, Zenon
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    Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa99pa183.

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    Date of creation: Aug 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa99pa183
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria
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    1. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
    2. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 537-51, May.
    4. Paul Soderlind & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," NBER Working Papers 5877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pesaran, M Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1992. "An Analysis of the Determination of Deutsche Mark/French Franc Exchange Rate in a Discrete-Time Target-Zone Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 388-401, March.
    6. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
    7. Lee, Lung-fei, 1994. "Rational expectations in limited dependent variable models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 97-104, October.
    8. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
    10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
    11. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
    12. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1996. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with stochastic thresholds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 267-276, June.
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    14. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
    16. Pesaran, M Hashem & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1999. "Analysis of Exchange-Rate Target Zones Using a Limited-Dependent Rational-Expectations Model with Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 50-66, January.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Hossein Samiei, 1991. "Estimating Limited-Dependent Rational Expectations Models: With an Application to Exchange Rate Determination in a Target Zone," UCLA Economics Working Papers 612, UCLA Department of Economics.
    18. Holt, Matthew & Johnson, Stanley R., 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," Staff General Research Papers 267, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
    20. Juan Ayuso & Maria Perez-Jurado, 1997. "Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 471-484.
    21. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July.
    22. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    23. Tristani, Oreste, 1994. " Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 1-14.
    24. David H. Papell, 1984. "Monetarist Monetary Policy, Exchange Risk, and Exchange Rate Variability," NBER Working Papers 1306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Linear rational expectations models for dynamically interrelated variables," Working Papers 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    26. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1325-1353, November.
    27. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1991. "Sustainable Intervention Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
    29. James Tobin, 1956. "Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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