IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/wc2000/1305.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Bessec

    (Universite Paris 1)

Abstract

This paper examines jointly the empirical relevance of the mean-reversion and the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypotheses in the exchange rate dynamics within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Given the non stationarity and the nonlinearities characterizing foreign exchange rate dynamics, we analyse this question in the framework of a Markov-Switching Error Correction model : it allows a discontinuous adjustment towards the cointegration relationship. We find that the European exchange rates of the ERM members display a strong mean-reversion in the credible regime, whereas they adjust to the PPP during the volatile period.The first effect is due to the stabilizing effect of a credible target-zone, while the second one can be explained by the realignments made in accordance with the underlying inflation rates in order to maintain the competitiveness between the ERM members.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1305
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1305.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Michael Artis & Dilip Nachane, 1990. "Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 126(1), pages 59-77, March.
    3. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
    4. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Thierry Roncalli, 1996. "Retour à la moyenne dans les cours du change du mécanisme de change européen : 1987-1995," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 189-205.
    5. de Jong, F.C.J.M. & Drost, F.C. & Werker, B.J.M., 1997. "Exchange rate target zones : A new approach," Other publications TiSEM f3844464-a071-4890-8894-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Tristani, Oreste, 1994. " Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 1-14.
    7. Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
    8. Edison, Hali J. & Fisher, Eric O'N, 1991. "A long-run view of the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-70, March.
    9. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
    10. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Cosslett, Stephen R. & Lee, Lung-Fei, 1985. "Serial correlation in latent discrete variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 79-97, January.
    13. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "A regime-switching approach to the study of speculative attacks: A focus on EMS crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 299-334.
    14. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung & Kon S. Lai & Wai-Chung Lo, 1995. "Purchasing power parity under the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-189, April.
    16. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence, and the European Monetary System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 553-558, August.
    17. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    18. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    19. Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1993. "A jump diffusion model for the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 475-492, October.
    20. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
    21. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
    22. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    23. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    24. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
    25. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    26. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    27. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    28. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. " Intervention Policy and Mean Reversion in Exchange Rate Target Zones: The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 499-513.
    29. Knot, Klaas H W & Dijkstra, Theo K & De Haan, Jakob, 1999. "Empirical Features of the Second-Generation Target Zone Models: Mean-Reverting Fundamentals and Endogenous Devaluation Risk," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 489-509, July.
    30. Fung, Hung-Gay & Lo, Wai-Chung, 1992. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 553-570, November.
    31. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bessec, Marie, 2003. "Mean-reversion vs. adjustment to PPP: the two regimes of exchange rate dynamics under the EMS, 1979-1998," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 141-164, January.
    2. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    4. Lo, C.F. & Hui, C.H. & Fong, T. & Chu, S.W., 2015. "A quasi-bounded target zone model — Theory and application to Hong Kong dollar," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-17.
    5. BESSEC Marie, 2010. "The Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dynamics in the EMS: a Time-Varying Threshold Test," EcoMod2003 330700015, EcoMod.
    6. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Po-Hon Chau, 2017. "Can Exchange Rate Dynamics in Krugman¡¯s Target-zone Model be Directly Tested?Abstract: Despite Krugman's (1991) model being a benchmark for modelling target zones, empirical support has been sparse d," Working Papers 032017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Jess Rodr?uez L?ez & Hugo Rodr?uez Mendiz?al, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: Target Zones Revisited," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 518.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    8. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
    9. Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou & Chang, Juin-jen, 2008. "Volatility trade-offs in exchange rate target zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 366-379.
    10. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    11. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007. "The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, September.
    13. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Fong, Tom Pak-Wing, 2016. "Swiss franc's one-sided target zone during 2011–2015," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-67.
    14. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
    15. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Regime: Target Zones Revisited," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/10, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    16. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    17. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1998. "Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 339-353, April.
    18. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    19. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
    20. Clifford Ball & Antonio Roma, 1998. "Detecting mean reversion within reflecting barriers: application to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.