The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS
Exchange rates of currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) are characterized by long periods of stability interrupted by periods of extreme volatility. The periods of volatility appear at times of realignments of the central parities and at times when the exchange rate is within the ERM bands. We begin by considering a procedure for finding outliers based on measuring distance as a quadratic form. The evidence suggests that the exchange rates of the EMS can be described by a mixture of two distributions. We therefore model the exchange rate as switching between two distributions--one that holds in stable times and the other that holds in volatile times. In particular, we use Hamilton's Markov-switching model. In addition, we extend Hamilton's model by allowing the probability of switching from one state to another to depend on the position of the exchange rate within its EMS band. This model has the interesting implication that near the edge of the band, large movements--either realignments or large jumps to the centre of the band--are more likely if the move to the edge of the band has been precipitous. Copyright @ 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||1994|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (816) 881-2254
Web page: http://www.kansascityfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
- Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993.
"European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
- Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," Papers 542, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1993. "A jump diffusion model for the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 475-492, October.
- Koedijk, Kees G. & Stork, Philip A. & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: The view from the tails," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 462-473, October.
- Akgiray, Vedat & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1988. "Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 631-37, November.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Filardo, Andrew J, 1994.
"Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
- Andrew J. Filardo, 1993. "Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics," Research Working Paper 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Filardo JBES 1994 paper with time-varying Markov switching," Statistical Software Components RTZ00059, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Park, Keehwan & Ahn, Chang Mo & Fujihara, Roger, 1993. "Optimal hedged portfolios: the case of jump-diffusion risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 493-510, October.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tucker, Alan L & Pond, Lallon, 1988. "The Probability Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Tests of Candidate Processes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 638-47, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:94-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lu Dayrit)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.